Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Forecast Of Natural Gas Consumption In Hebei Province

Under the background of more and more serious climate problems,natural gas,as an efficient and environmentally friendly clean energy,has become the preferred energy for the country to adjust the energy structure and transition to low-carbon sustainable development.In recent years,China's total natural gas consumption and consumption proportion have been increasing year by year,and the industry has developed rapidly.Hebei Province,as a big industrial province and a strong industrial province in China,in the face of serious environmental pollution and tight energy supply,needs clean energy such as natural gas to replace high carbon energy such as coal,so as to improve the atmospheric environment and achieve energy supply security.Therefore,it is very necessary and important to study the influencing factors of natural gas consumption in Hebei Province and predict the future natural gas consumption in Hebei Province.In order to explore the factors affecting natural gas consumption in Hebei Province,this paper first constructs the identity of economy,population,energy structure and energy intensity from the end consumption of natural gas;Then,based on the data of natural gas terminal consumption in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2018,the paper analyzes the factors influencing natural gas consumption by LMDI model,and calculates the contribution of each factor to natural gas consumption.The decomposition results show that the structural effect and economic effect of fossil energy consumption have positive driving effect on natural gas consumption and have a great contribution in most of the years 2000-2018;The non clean energy consumption effect and energy intensity effect have negative driving effect on natural gas for most of the time;Population effect has a positive driving effect on natural gas consumption for most of the research period,but the average contribution is only3.25%.Based on the decomposition results of LMDI model and the system dynamics method,this paper divides the natural gas consumption into four subsystems: economy,population,consumption and policy.The causal relationship analysis is carried out for each subsystem,and then the dynamic and mechanical model of natural gas consumption system in Hebei Province is constructed;Then,the validity test of the model shows that the model can reflect the actual situation of natural gas consumption in Hebei Province effectively and truly,and can be used as the prediction model of natural gas consumption in Hebei Province.In order to explore the future situation of natural gas consumption,based on the system dynamics model of natural gas consumption in Hebei Province,this paper selects five indicators of economy,population,urbanization,industrial structure and unit energy consumption to set three development scenarios for natural gas consumption in Hebei Province,and forecasts the situation of natural gas consumption under each scenario;Then,the development trend of natural gas consumption and consumption structure under each development scenario is compared and analyzed.Finally,according to the research results of this paper,the paper puts forward feasible suggestions for natural gas consumption in Hebei Province.