Research On Evaluation Of Imported Natural Gas Security In China Based On PSR Model

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to adhere to the new development concept and develop ecological civilization.This requires the energy industry to optimize its structure and build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system.China’s energy development "13th Five-Year Plan" proposed that the gravity of China’s natural gas consumption will reach 10% by 2020,while China’s natural gas supply is insufficient,and the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding,which directly leads to the continuous increase of natural gas dependence.In addition,the natural gas international trade which is greatly influenced by geopolitics,besides it lacks the right to speak in natural gas pricing.The healthy development of the natural gas industry has an important support and guarantee for China’s national economy.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the safety of natural gas imports.The paper analyzes the factors that affect China’s natural gas import safety from three aspects: natural gas import source,price and transportation.Based on this,the PSR conceptual model is used to construct China’s natural gas import safety evaluation system.The paper takes2006-2017 as the evaluation period,the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each index of China’s natural gas import safety.Through the TOPSIS method,the PSR criterion layer and the overall import safety of China’s natural gas are comprehensively evaluated,and the grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the relation between each index and China’s natural gas import safety so as to find out the key problems about the safety of natural gas import in China,and finally the corresponding suggestions are put forward.The results show that:(1)the pressure on China’s natural gas import safety has increased after 2010,but the growth rate is relatively slow;the volatility of import safety status is relatively large;the response level of import safety is growing steadily.(2)During 2006 to 2017,China’s natural gas import safety level showed a “U-shaped” with a turning point in 2011,and the overall level was in a state of less safety and critical safety.Among them,the pressure level accounts for the largest proportion of China’s natural gas import safety level.(3)At the pressure level,external dependence and political stability of China’s main natural gas import source have the greatest impact on China’s natural gas import safety;At the state level,LNG import price,storage-production ratio and China’s natural gas import safety are highly correlated;At the response level,the correlation between natural gas strategic reserve level and China’s natural gas import safety is high.(4)China’s current natural gas import security faces several problems,such as: 1)holding on high dependence on foreign countries and existing in geopolitical risks;2)facing on passive acceptance of natural gas import prices;3)possessing insufficient supply on domestic natural gas;4)having poor natural gas strategic reserves.Based on the key problems,putting forward to corresponding measures to ensure the safety of China’s natural gas imports.