| In recent years,under the background of "carbon neutrality" and "peak carbon dioxide emissions",China vigorously advocates clean energy.With the development of China’s economy,the demand for natural gas is increasing,and the import of natural gas is also increasing.In 2021,China’s LNG import volume has surpassed that of Japan,ranking first in the world.However,with the continuous growth of natural gas imports,natural gas imports are affected by various uncertain factors,including natural gas price fluctuations,geopolitical factors and transportation factors,which bring certain risks to China’s natural gas imports.These risks may lead to unstable natural gas supply,which will further affect the domestic energy supply security.Therefore,with the continuous growth of natural gas imports,it is particularly important to study the risks of natural gas imports and find strategies to prevent and reduce them.Firstly,based on GARCH model,this thesis studies the risk of natural gas import price fluctuation in China and analyzes the market price fluctuation of natural gas import in China.Based on the portfolio theory,the risk index model of natural gas import in China is established,and the special risk index and systematic risk index of natural gas import in China from 2010 to 2021 are calculated.Then,the risk coping strategies for special risks and system risks are studied respectively: based on the risk index model,the special risks are studied in two scenarios of adjusting the import quantity,and the special risks of natural gas imports are reduced by appropriately adjusting the import strategy;Based on VAR model,this thesis explores the influencing factors and fluctuation law of international natural gas price fluctuation to prevent the systematic risk of natural gas import.The results show that:(1)The epidemic situation in COVID-19 and extreme weather have caused the market price of natural gas imports in China to fluctuate sharply,and the risk of price fluctuation has increased.(2)From 2010 to 2021,the systematic risk index of natural gas imports in China is higher than the special risk index,and the special risk index is relatively stable compared with the systematic risk index.(3)When China imports natural gas,it can’t reduce the risk by importing natural gas from all the importing countries.When importing natural gas,the import volume should be determined according to the specific situation of each importing country;Reducing import dependence on countries with large risk weight coefficient and diversifying distribution can reduce import risk to a certain extent.(4)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among international natural gas price,international carbon price and international crude oil price.The rise of international carbon price and international crude oil price will lead to the rise of international natural gas price,and the fluctuation of international carbon price and international crude oil price can explain the fluctuation of international natural gas price by 8% and 5% respectively,with a time lag of 2 months and 3 months.By studying the market price fluctuation of China’s natural gas imports,this thesis improves the risk index model with the help of portfolio theory,and completes the comprehensive calculation of the systematic risk of China’s natural gas imports and the special risks of various import countries,which has certain theoretical significance for improving the comprehensive study of natural gas risks.A detailed analysis of the price fluctuation of the international natural gas market is helpful to grasp the changing law and development trend of the international natural gas market and improve the forecasting ability and decision-making level of enterprises on the future natural gas market.It is of practical significance to analyze the coping strategies of natural gas import risk in detail and put forward measures to reduce the risk of natural gas import in China,which is helpful to ensure the safety of natural gas supply in China. |
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