Safety Evaluation And Obstacle Factor Analysis Of Natural Gas Import In China Under Energy Transition

Since the reform and opening up,the domestic economy has developed rapidly,and China’s demand for energy has become increasingly strong.As an important strategic energy,natural gas plays an important role in supporting national economic development and maintaining national energy security.With the transformation of energy structure,the utilization rate of natural gas as a clean energy is increasing.However,the increasing natural gas consumption and import dependence as well as the complicated international political forms have posed a great threat to China’s natural gas import security.Therefore,in view of the changing international situation and domestic gas demand,comprehensive evaluation of China’s natural gas import security is of great significance to ensure China’s natural gas energy security.In this thesis,combined with the current situation of China’s natural gas import,the influencing factors of China’s natural gas import safety are comprehensively analyzed.On this basis,relevant evaluation indexes are selected from five dimensions of economic security,resource security,consumption security,market security and environmental security to construct China’s natural gas import safety evaluation system.In this thesis,from 2006 to2020 as the research interval,the entropy method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index,and the TOPSIS method is used to calculate China’s natural gas import safety index and subsystem safety index over the years,and the comprehensive evaluation of China’s natural gas import safety is carried out.Finally,the obstacle degree model is introduced to analyze the main obstacle factors affecting the safety of natural gas import in China.The results show that:(1)The overall trend of China’s natural gas import safety index is v-shaped,and the evolution process of comprehensive safety level is critical-early-warning safety-criticality safety.The overall import safety level in the study area decreased first and then increased.Among them,the security level of economic security subsystem presents a rising trend,the security level of resource security subsystem keeps a steady change,and the consumption security,market security and environment security subsystem have a great impact on China’s natural gas import security.(2)Main obstacle factors of China’s early is a power and other energy accounted for,such as GDP per capita and gas inlet concentration index,2017 is the main obstacle factors affecting the safety of gas imports its self-sufficiency rate of natural gas,natural gas import dependency and carbon dioxide emissions index,shows that with the improving of the domestic gas consumption demand,The domestic supply is not enough to support the demand for gas,and the dependence on imports is gradually strengthened.At the same time,the rising consumption of natural gas brings about the increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions,which causes certain pressure on China’s environmental security.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the research conclusions of this thesis,the corresponding policy suggestions for improving the safety level of China’s natural gas import are put forward,including improving the domestic natural gas exploitation level,continuously optimizing the energy structure,establishing a regional cooperation mechanism for Asian natural gas and deepening the international cooperation on natural gas energy security.