Spatial And Temporal Correlation Characteristics And Spillover Effects Of Human Activities And Habitat Quality In National Key Ecological Function Areas Based On LUCC

Ecological civilization is a new form of human civilization development,and scientific measurement of the correlation between human activities and habitat quality can provide theoretical support for the construction of ecological civilization.As a model area for exploring the harmonious coexistence between human and nature,the national key ecological function areas have played an important role in safeguarding the national ecological security pattern and coordinating the relationship between human and land since their establishment in 2011.However,in a social context where economic rationality and ecological rationality are in balance,what is the current ecological environment of the national key ecological function areas? Is the intensity of human activities rising or falling?What are the changes in the relationship between human and land before and after the establishment of ecological zones? To this end,this thesis takes the above questions as the guideline,takes 982 county-level administrative regions where 46 terrestrial ecological zones are located as the research objects,takes six periods of land use change from 1995 to2020 as the grasp,explores the rate and direction of habitat and non-habitat land type changes in ecological zones,and detects human-geographic factors driving land use changes with the help of the Probit model;and on the basis of land use change research,it Based on the study of land use change,the In VEST ecosystem service assessment and trade-off tool was used to construct a habitat and threat source trade-off model to characterize the ecological environment in terms of habitat quality,and the standard deviation elliptical distribution function and bivariate local Moran’s I index were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of habitat quality in the ecoregion and its counties.In addition,this thesis selects the human drivers of land use change and uses the human footprint index to reflect the intensity of human activities,and uses the bivariate local Moran’s I index to explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of human activities and habitat quality in the ecoregion,and further uses the spatial Durbin model to measure the spatial spillover effects of typical human activities on habitat quality.Specific data support and theoretical bases are provided for the construction of ecological civilization in the ecoregion,with the following conclusions:(1)On the whole,the overall land use pattern of the ecological zone is relatively stable over 25 years,with grassland,forest land and unused land as the main land use types.Among them,forest land is mainly distributed in the northeast Xinganling and southwest Nanling areas,while grassland and unused land are interspersed in the northwest.Specifically,the area of grassland decreases year by year,with a total decrease of 5.9%;the area of forest land shrinks year by year,with a total decrease of 2.96%;the area of unused land increases by 4.4%,with the expansion mainly occurring between 1995 and 2000,with an increase of 4.1%;the wetland of rivers and lakes increases by 7.64%;the construction land increases the most,with 57.73%,but its base is small and does not have a great impact on the overall structure of land use.However,its base is small and does not have a great impact on the overall structure of land use.(2)In terms of land use change drivers,the results of the Probit model show that distance from county roads and GDP density among socio-economic factors and elevation and slope among natural factors pass the 1% significance level test on arable land change,and their corresponding average marginal effects are positive,indicating that the positive development of the above variables induces arable land outflow;slope is favorable to woodland development,but The results of the Probit model also indicate that the driving force is mostly anisotropic for both.(3)The overall habitat quality in the ecoregion shows a pattern of "decreasing from south to north in the west and staggered distribution in the east",which is consistent with the spatial differentiation of natural and human geography in China.The study found that the high value areas are mainly distributed in the northeastern Xing’an Mountains,Changbai Mountain area and southern hilly areas,accounting for 38.5% of the total area of the study area;the medium value areas have a high spatial separation,mainly in the central and western regions,including southeastern North China,southwestern East China and central Northeast China,accounting for 22.6% of the total area;the low value areas are mainly concentrated in the semi-arid regions in the northwest,with fragile and sensitive environments.The low value area is mainly concentrated in the semi-arid areas of northwest China,with fragile and sensitive environment and serious ecological degradation,accounting for 38.9%.(4)Over the past 25 years,the intensity and breadth of human activities have been expanding.Taking the Hu Huanyong Line as the boundary,the intensity of human activities in the eastern and western regions differs significantly,with the eastern region having a large number of medium and high values of human activities,while the western region,except for the northern border and Gansu,has mainly lower intensity of human activities.Specifically,the growth rate of human activity intensity from 1995 to 2010 is slow and the difference between east and west is relatively small;from 2010 to 2020,due to the quadrillion economic stimulus plan and the transfer of industries from developed countries,the productivity of southeast China,led by the southeast coastal region,develops rapidly and the total economic volume increases continuously.Against the background of population agglomeration and urban expansion,the growth rate of HFI further expands,and the regional differences between the east and west become more and more obvious.(5)Bivariate local autocorrelation analysis shows that the Moran’s I indexes of human activities and habitat quality are all positively correlated.The distribution of the number of ecological zones within each agglomeration was: 15 high-high agglomerations,5 high-low agglomerations,5 low-high agglomerations,and no low-low agglomerations.The results of the spatial Durbin model showed that the effects of human activities on habitat quality varied in different natural-social contexts,and the effects of population and GDP distribution on habitat quality varied in different agglomerations,but traffic roads had a negative effect on habitat quality.