Energy Demand Prediction And Energy Structure Optimization In Anhui Province Based On Carbon Constraint

In recent years,with the rapid growth of global energy consumption and carbon emissions,climate and environmental issues have become increasingly serious.At present,China has become the world’s largest energy consumption and carbon emission country.In view of this,China has formulated the Action Plan for Peaking carbon by 2030 and other planning documents,proposing the"dual carbon"goal of peaking carbon by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.Anhui Province is an important member of Yangtze River Delta economic zone and is in a critical period of development.Therefore,it has important reference significance to forecast the future development of Anhui Province and explore the optimization path of energy structure based on the forecast data.The main research work is as follows:（1）Through data access,summary analysis Anhui Province development status.The results show that the total GDP of Anhui Province in 2020 is 3868.1 billion yuan,with an average annual growth rate of 10.1%.In 2020,the ratio of the three industries will be 8.3:40.5:51.2,showing an industrial pattern of"three,two and one".Urbanization is deepening,with the urbanization rate reaching 58.3%by 2020.The total energy consumption and carbon emission of Anhui Province are rising rapidly,reaching 14698×10⁴tce and 347×10⁶t respectively in 2020.Energy intensity and carbon emission intensity show a trend of rapid decline,reaching 0.38tce/ten thousand yuan and 0.897t/ten thousand yuan respectively in 2020,with an average annual decline rate of 6.4%and 7.5%respectively.（2）The LEAP-Anhui prediction model is constructed,and the modeling process includes three parts:prediction mechanism description,scenario design and basic parameter index determination.The description of prediction mechanism includes establishing mathematical function model and designing prediction tree structure chart.Scenario design is to comprehensively consider the impact of various factors on the future development of Anhui Province,such as economic growth rate,industrial structure adjustment,population and urbanization process changes,technological development and progress,and energy intensity changes,and designs the baseline scenario,development planning scenario,energy conservation and emission reduction scenario.The three scenarios predict three different development paths of Anhui Province in the future.According to the different definitions and specific design basis of the three scenarios,the basic parameter indexes of the three scenarios are determined.（3）The forecast results were analyzed from three aspects of the overall situation,sub-system situation and varieties situation in Anhui Province.Overall,total energy demand and total carbon emission will reach 23459×10⁴tce,18627×10⁴tce,16268×10⁴tce and 512.2×10⁶t,374.1×10⁶t and 317.8×10⁶t respectively in 2035 under the three scenarios.Energy intensity and carbon emission intensity show a declining trend under the three scenarios.Carbon emission intensity will decrease to 0.573t/ten thousand yuan,0.523t/ten thousand yuan and 0.49t/ten thousand yuan in 2030,respectively,down by 81.5%,83.1%and 84.2%compared with 2005.（4）In terms of sub-system,industry is the largest energy demand and carbon emission industry in Anhui Province.Under DPS and ERS scenarios,energy demand will peak at 10262×10⁴tce and 9567×10⁴tce in 2027 and 2022 respectively.Carbon emissions peaked at 246.9×10⁶t in DPS scenario in 2025,and decreased continuously in ERS scenario.The demand for tertiary industry and household energy is increasing,and will reach 5426×10⁴tce,5005×10⁴tce,4552×10⁴tce and 4308×10⁴tce,3315×10⁴tce and 2771×10⁴tce respectively in 2035 under the three scenarios.The carbon emission control effect of the two systems under ERS scenario is better than that of the other two scenarios,and the carbon emission will reach 73.4×10⁶t and 48.9×10⁶t by 2035,respectively.（5）In terms of varieties,coal is the largest energy consumption variety in Anhui Province,reaching 13864×10⁴tce,9425×10⁴tce and 7760×10⁴tce respectively in2035 under three scenarios.Oil products increased in different degrees under the three scenarios.The demand for natural gas and clean energy shows a trend of sharp increase.In 2035,the demand for natural gas energy will reach 2205×10⁴tce,1881×10⁴tce and 1903×10⁴tce respectively under the three scenarios.The demand for clean energy is 3237×10⁴tce,3595×10⁴tce and 3351×10⁴tce respectively.Based on forecast results,the economic factors are the main factors influencing the energy demand and carbon emissions in anhui province,slowing down economic growth,optimizing the industrial structure to control the growth of energy consumption and carbon emissions in anhui province play an important role,and the development of science and technology innovation,improving energy efficiency,increase the non-fossil energy consumption proportion also have certain effect.（6）Based on various energy data of Anhui Province in 2030 under the DPS scenario,two carbon constraint targets were set and carbon pinch method was used to explore the optimization path of energy structure in Anhui Province.Under the overall carbon constraint,the minimum clean energy demands of the two paths are117.7×10¹⁶J and 107×10¹⁶J,accounting for 22.6%and 20.6%,respectively.Under the carbon constraints of each demand system,the proportion of clean energy allocated to the three demand systems under the two paths is 39.3%and 16.4%for tertiary industry,23.3%and 14.2%for residential life,37.4%and 69.4%for secondary industry respectively.On the one hand,Anhui Province should increase the capital investment in the field of energy technology,on the other hand,it should speed up the pace of industrial upgrading.