Geopolitical Risks To Chinese Crude Oil Import Trade Impact Studies

Under the background of changes in the world economic situation and the high-quality development requirements of China’s "14th Five-Year Plan",China’s demand for crude oil is also rising,and more and more attention is paid to the safety of crude oil.For a long time,complex international relations,turbulent regional situations,asymmetric information in the international market,rampant hegemonism and other problems have caused great obstacles to China’s crude oil imports,and also buried hidden dangers to China’s crude oil security.In the past few years,with the increasing geopolitical risks and the increasingly severe international situation,under the "14th Five-Year Plan",China has placed crude oil security in an important strategic position in future development.Therefore,in order to ensure the security of China’s crude oil supply,it is of great significance to explore the impact of geopolitical risks on China’s crude oil imports.This thesis first reviews the measurement methods of geopolitical risks,the impact of geopolitical risks on trade,and energy security from the perspectives of geopolitical risks and China’s crude oil imports and their interrelationship.Then,the impact mechanism of geopolitical risks on China’s crude oil import trade is summarized,and it is found that rising geopolitical risks will increase trade costs,reduce the stability of crude oil supply,affect the import decisions of crude oil importing countries,and inhibit the scale of crude oil trade.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis,this thesis selects the Country Risk Index(ICRG)released by PSG Group as a proxy variable of geopolitical risk,divides crude oil trade into two dimensions: trade volume and trade price,and conducts empirical research on the impact of geopolitical risks between China and 33 major import source countries on China’s crude oil import trade from 2006 to 2020.Finally,the voting data of the United Nations General Assembly was selected to measure the bilateral political relations between the two countries,and it was used as a regulating variable,and a moderating effect model was established and the mechanism was tested.The specific conclusions of this thesis are as follows: First,geopolitical risks have a negative impact on China’s crude oil imports and import prices,and the rise of geopolitical risks will have a restraining effect on China’s crude oil trade.At the same time,the economic and financial factors of one country have a greater impact on China’s crude oil import trade,and the political factors are not significant.Then the geopolitical risks before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have a very significant impact on China’s crude oil import trade,while the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not significant,and with the advancement of the Russian-Ukrainian war,the specific impact needs to be studied in depth.Third,for the "Belt and Road" countries,the impact of geopolitical risks on China’s crude oil imports is much smaller than that of non-"Belt and Road" countries,which also means that crude oil trade with "Belt and Road" countries will be more stable and safer,and have stronger anti-risk capabilities.Finally,in the trade with major crude oil exporters,China’s crude oil imports have a stronger ability to resist geopolitical risk changes,and are more sensitive to geopolitical risk changes in countries in the middle,and the increase of geopolitical risks will have a greater impact on China’s crude oil import trade decisions.In addition,empirical test results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations can effectively alleviate the negative impact of rising geopolitical risks,and at the same time promote China’s crude oil import trade.Based on the above conclusions,this thesis believes that when making China’s crude oil import decisions,we should fully consider the negative impact of geopolitical risks on crude oil imports,establish a sound risk assessment system,and make effective emergency plans.Resolutely safeguard the two major lucrative import channels of crude oil in the Middle East and Russia,and actively open up resources in Africa and the Americas.Further promote the construction of the "Belt and Road" and effectively mitigate the negative impact of rising geopolitical risks.Finally,in order to fundamentally alleviate China’s dependence on foreign crude oil,ensure the safety of domestic crude oil,and effectively connect supply and demand,it is necessary to improve crude oil extraction and refining technology and establish complete storage and transportation facilities.