Study On The Impact Of Bilateral Political Relations On China's Oil Import Trade

As China's economy has grown steadily and the quality of growth has continued to increase,China's demand for clean energy,represented by oil,has continued to increase,and its dependence on foreign energy has also been steadily rising.In order to protect China's energy security,China has actively carried out energy diplomacy and strengthened bilateral relations with oil-producing countries.Then,will the improvement of bilateral political relations between China and the oil importing countries be conducive to safeguarding China's oil supply security? This article will conduct theoretical research and empirical research on the above issues.This article first sorts out the domestic and foreign literature according to the measurement methods of bilateral political relations,the factors affecting oil imports,the security of energy supply,and the influence of bilateral political relations on trade;secondly,this article starts with a good bilateral political relationship and a conflict-type bilateral political relationship.Start with a theoretical analysis of the impact of bilateral political relations on the oil import trade;finally,this paper selected the distance of the ideal point voted by the United Nations as the proxy variable for bilateral political relations,subdividing the oil import trade into oil imports and oil imports.The three dimensions of price and oil import probability are based on an empirical analysis of the impact of bilateral political relations between China and the major 37 oil importing countries on China's oil import trade between 1993 and 2016.By sorting out the literature,this paper sums up three typical methods for measuring bilateral political relations at home and abroad,and sorts out that the focus of energy import security concerns still lies in the price and import volume,and finds that the current research on bilateral political relations focuses on the overall sector.There is less concern for the energy industry.In theory,a good bilateral political relationship,as a bilateral friendly institutional arrangement,can effectively reduce bilateral trade costs,reduce the external risks faced by enterprises,compensate for host country's political risks,and promote bilateral oil trade.The impact of conflict-type bilateral political relations on oil is mainly based on the characteristics of oil as a strategic commodity and the large amount of investment involved in the oil trade process,and it faces a relatively large “risk” risk.Therefore,countries in the oil trade will consider the issue of security externalities more often,and avoid negative security externalities caused by the oil trade with hostile countries.In an empirical analysis of the entire sample of the entireperiod,this paper found that,in general,bilateral political relations between China and major oil importing countries have a significant impact on China's oil import trade.The improvement of bilateral political relations will not only affect the quantitative margins and price margins of China's oil imports,but will also affect the probability of China's imports of oil from a country.In the analysis of the sub-phases,we found that with the2008 financial crisis as the boundary,the performance of bilateral political relations has been clearly differentiated.Prior to the crisis,the bilateral political relations of bilateral political relations had a more significant impact on China's oil import trade.Before the crisis,bilateral political relations also had a greater impact on China's oil import volume and price margin than the entire sample period.After the crisis,the role of bilateral political relations in China's oil import trade seems to be less important.In addition,the sample group will also discuss the sample in accordance with whether it is the importance of countries along the "Belt and Road" route and in China's oil imports.This paper finds that the coefficients of the bilateral political relationship variables in the countries along the “Belt and Road” are not only larger but also more significant.Among the three sub-samples classified according to the importance of China's oil imports,bilateral political relations play a greater role in the sample groups of the seven countries with the most imported petroleum in China and the least 15 countries.For the15 countries in the middle,bilateral political relations have no significant effect on China's oil imports from the subsamples.Based on the research conclusions of this article,this article believes that China's energy diplomacy has indeed played an important role in ensuring the safety of China's oil imports.Under the background that the energy security situation facing our country has not been fundamentally improved,China should further strengthen energy diplomacy,especially focusing on the “One Belt and One Road” to carry out targeted energy diplomacy while carrying out energy diplomacy.We must pay close attention to the complex and ever-changing international environment and innovate energy diplomacy.The main contribution of this paper is to refine the research on trade in bilateral political relations to the specific industry-energy sector,and pay attention to the quantitative margins of oil imports,the price margins and the probability of oil imports.In the empirical aspect,the PPML estimation method is mainly used,taking into account the zero trade volume and heteroskedasticity problems in the oil import trade.This article believes that further research is needed in terms of further transmissionmechanisms and better solutions to endogenous problems.