Labor Aging,Agricultural Socialization Service And Green Total Factor Productivity Of Grain

Food security is the bottom line of our economic and social security,our country is a big food import and consumption country,is also a big food production country.With the continuous advancement of modernization,urbanization and industrialization,agriculture lacks comparative advantages and is in a backward position.Due to the low economic benefits of agriculture,many young and middle-aged rural labor force,in pursuit of better economic benefits,transfer from the countryside to the city,the quantity and quality of rural labor force are affected.It leads to the "hollowing out" problem in rural areas,which is manifested by the prominent aging of the labor force.How to ensure our country food safety? How to secure the rice bowl of the Chinese people? Who will farm the land in the future,and how? We should give priority to these issues.From a theoretical point of view,the aging age structure of Chinese agricultural labor force will bring negative influence on the production of Chinese grain,and even seriously harm food security.However,although the aging degree of Chinese agriculture is deepening,the grain output has maintained 19 consecutive years of growth.What is the mechanism behind this phenomenon? Therefore,it is necessary to study this problem further.Based on the input and output data of grain production in 31 provinces from 2011 to 2019,this paper uses DEA to measure the green total factor productivity of grain in each province on the basis of calculating the carbon emissions of grain production in each province.Then,the panel data was used to empirically analyze the impact of labor aging on grain green total factor productivity,and a mediation effect model was constructed to further investigate the intermediary mechanism of agricultural socialized service industry in the impact of labor aging on grain green total factor productivity.The results showed that:(1)the green total factor productivity of grain increased year by year;(2)Labor aging has a significant negative effect on grain green total factor productivity;(3)The aging of labor force will promote the development of agricultural socialized service,which is conducive to the improvement of green total factor productivity of grain.(4)The aging of labor force mainly makes the socialized service of agriculture play a positive intermediary role through the "backward forcing mechanism",which to some extent slows down the negative impact of the aging of labor force on the green total factor productivity of grain.Therefore,in agricultural production,we should improve the level of agricultural socialized service,increase the investment of capital,technology and talents in agriculture,guide the young and middle-aged labor back to agriculture,and promote the appropriate scale management of land.