Study On The Mechanism And Effect Of Agricultural Land Transfer On Agricultural Carbon Emissions

In recent years,the problem of global warming caused by the rising emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide has become increasingly serious,seriously threatening the survival and development of mankind.As a pillar industry of the national economy,the greenhouse gas emissions from its production and operation activities are second only to industrial emissions.Therefore,how to realize the "low-carbon" development of agriculture has become an urgent problem to be solved by all countries in the world.As an important means to improve the allocation efficiency of agricultural resources and promote the high-quality development of agriculture,agricultural land transfer will have a profound impact on agricultural economy,society,ecology and other aspects.Therefore,under the pressure of agricultural carbon emission reduction,whether agricultural land transfer can become a policy arrangement to curb agricultural carbon emissions is the focus of this paper.Based on this,this paper proposes the following research questions: Can agricultural land transfer effectively curb the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in China? Through what mechanism does agricultural land transfer inhibit the increase of agricultural carbon emissions? Does its influence have nonlinear characteristics?In order to answer the above questions,this paper made reference to the existing research results and relevant theories,clarified the mechanism of agricultural land transfer on agricultural carbon emissions,analyzed the indirect and nonlinear effects of agricultural land transfer on agricultural carbon emissions,and proposed research hypotheses.In addition,using the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2020,this paper uses two-way fixed effect regression model,intermediary effect model and panel threshold regression model to explore the impact effect,impact path and nonlinear impact of agricultural land transfer on agricultural carbon emissions.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From the overall perspective,China’s agricultural carbon emissions from 2005 to 2020 show a trend of "rising first,then falling" with 2016 as the boundary.From the regional level,China’s agricultural carbon emissions from 2005 to 2020 show the regional characteristics of "West>Central>East>Northeast".From the perspective of carbon emission sources,the carbon emissions and growth rate caused by different carbon sources show different time-series fluctuations.(2)The transfer of agricultural land has a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions.The research conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests such as instrumental variable method treatment,elimination of municipal samples,tail reduction treatment,etc.At the same time,there is regional heterogeneity in the inhibition effect of farmland transfer on agricultural carbon emissions.The inhibition effect of farmland transfer on agricultural carbon emissions is significant in the eastern and central regions,but not significant in the western regions.(3)There is an impact mechanism of "agricultural land transfer-agricultural factor input-agricultural carbon emissions",which is embodied in reducing the level of agricultural chemical elements,improving the level of agricultural mechanical elements and reducing agricultural carbon emissions.(4)There is a single threshold effect of the impact of farmland transfer on agricultural carbon emissions.When the threshold value is crossed,the inhibition effect of farmland transfer on agricultural carbon emissions is weakened.Based on the above research conclusions,this article proposes targeted policy recommendations to promote the orderly transfer of agricultural land,promote the precise application of agricultural chemicals by farmers,and take multiple measures to improve the level of agricultural mechanization.