| Railroad transportation is the main modern transportation mode in China and plays an important role in economic,social and scientific development as well as people’s material and cultural life needs.It is necessary to invest reasonable resources to take effective measures to reduce the probability of railroad accidents,control the losses caused by accidents and guarantee the safety of railroad transportation.Based on railroad safety information management system and combined with questionnaire survey,this paper constructs a safety supervision input-output index system,analyzes the path of railroad safety supervision resources through structural equation modeling,proposes a railroad safety supervision input resource optimization method based on system dynamics model,in order to provide a reference basis for the railroad industry to make safety input decisions and safety production management.The paper firstly reviewed the basic definition and classification of safety inputs and outputs,quantitative methods of inputs and outputs,means of safety input optimization,and the current situation of system dynamics model application,and obtained the shortcomings of existing railway safety supervision input-output research.Secondly,railroad safety input-output indicators are selected based on the characteristics of railroad industry;the data of quantitative indicators of railroad safety supervision inputs and outputs are collected through railroad safety management information system;the data of qualitative indicators of inputs and outputs of each station section of Chengdu Bureau are investigated and collected based on the questionnaire of railroad safety management level;the role of railroad safety supervision resources is proposed according to the content of railroad safety supervision and the nature of input-output indicators Path hypothesis.Again,a structural equation model of railroad safety supervision was established,and the input-output data of Chengdu Bureau in the last quarter were used for fitting analysis,analyzing the correlation between indicators and verifying the reasonableness of the hypothesis.Finally,the influence weights among the indicators are calculated according to the fitting results of the structural equation model,and the system dynamics model of railroad safety supervision input-output is established by combining the paths of railroad safety supervision resources.And propose a variety of input resource allocation schemes,use Vensim software to simulate the system dynamics model,analyze the sensitivity of different types of safety inputs and outputs through the simulation results,put forward the optimal railroad safety supervision input resource allocation scheme through the comprehensive analysis results,calculate the maximum input scale under the optimal scheme,and facilitate the railroad bureau to efficiently and scientifically use the safety input resources to obtain.This will facilitate the railway bureau to use the safety input resources efficiently and scientifically to obtain the maximum safety output. |