Study On Carbon Emission Effect Of Rural Energy Consumption Structure Optimization

For the first time,the 14 th Five-Year Plan clearly sets out the timetable and roadmap for China to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,and implements the intended contributions of the international community to address climate change.With the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy and the construction of rural ecological civilization project,the carbon emission reduction work in rural areas has gradually become an important part of the "dual carbon" strategy.At present,the construction of rural green energy system and the optimization of consumption structure need to be carried out in coordination with the "dual carbon" work,and scientific and feasible carbon emission reduction plans should be formulated according to the basic local conditions.This is the focus of the next phase of rural carbon reduction work.However,at present,the government lacks systematic planning in the promotion of clean energy production technology and consumption,resulting in large randomness in rural energy consumption and slow progress in the popularization of clean energy.In addition,in the context of the simultaneous promotion of urbanization and industrialization,the optimization of rural energy structure at the present stage lacks strategic planning and accurate policy focus in coordination with other energy sectors."What kind of energy consumption structure is suitable for rural carbon emission reduction work","What are the differences in rural energy construction priorities in different regions","what stage should focus on the development of which type of energy" are all worthy of discussion.In order to solve these problems,panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to2020 are selected as samples to measure the spatial correlation of relevant indicators based on the principles and methods of spatial metrology,that is,to test the spatial correlation between energy consumption structure and carbon emissions in rural areas according to the Moran’s I index.Then,based on the sample data and the spatial Dubin model,the influences of rural energy consumption structure on rural energy consumption carbon emissions were tested,and the specific influences of rural energy consumption structure on carbon emission reduction at the present stage were explored.Secondly,regional heterogeneity analysis was carried out by region,and 30 provinces(municipalities)were divided into eastern,central and western regions for separate research,to elaborate the difference of influence of rural energy consumption structure on carbon emissions in different regions,and to clarify the construction focus of rural energy optimization in each region.Then,based on the existing economic data,the elastic coefficient method and the contribution value of energy consumption were used to construct the prediction model of rural energy consumption demand and energy consumption structure,and the rural energy consumption structure in 2030 was roughly speculated.Finally,the path analysis model is used to examine the influence relationship and influence path of various commodity energy on rural carbon emissions,so as to obtain the influence network between rural energy consumption structure and carbon emissions,and provide a solid basis and accurate direction for the optimization of rural energy consumption structure in the future.The results show that: Firstly,the rural energy consumption structure has a relatively obvious spatial positive correlation with carbon emissions.At present,the rural energy consumption structure as a whole plays a role in promoting carbon emissions in rural areas.Further regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the rural energy consumption structure in eastern China has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in rural areas,and this inhibitory effect is mainly effective in the local region.The rural energy consumption structure in the central and western regions has an obvious promoting effect on carbon emissions,both local and adjacent regions.Secondly,the rural energy consumption structure has been developing towards low coal carbonization in the past decade.It is estimated that when the "carbon peak" is realized in 2030,the proportion of coal in the rural energy consumption structure will continue to decline by about 10%,the proportion of electricity consumption will further increase by about 10%,and the proportion of oil and natural gas consumption will not change greatly.Thirdly,to optimize the future rural energy consumption structure,the first step is to increase the proportion of natural gas,and the second step is to steadily increase the proportion of electricity.In recent years,the proportion of electricity in the energy consumption structure has been increasing,playing the role of "substitute" for coal in the rural energy consumption structure.The change of the proportion of oil energy consumption on the overall effect of carbon emissions is not obvious,in the future to increase the proportion of natural gas and electricity use is bound to reduce oil consumption.According to the above conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward: clarifying regional rural energy consumption differences,adapting carbon emission reduction regulations to local conditions and strengthening regional cooperation;Adjust the rural energy consumption structure clean transformation,improve energy efficiency;Government policies intervene in carbon emissions,strengthen green technology introduction and research and development measures to improve energy consumption in rural areas,and promote the work of carbon reduction in rural areas.