Research On The Optimization Of Energy Consumption Structure In Shandong Province Based On Carbon Emission Reduction Target

The excessive emission of greenhouse gases has led to the continuous rise of global temperature,and the issue of carbon emission has been increasingly concerned and discussed by scholars.Carbon dioxide mainly comes from the exploitation and combustion of fossil energy.Therefore,reducing the total energy consumption and improving the energy consumption structure are effective ways to reduce carbon emissions.China is a big energy consumer.In 2020,the total energy consumption reached 4719.25 million tons of standard coal,and it will continue to grow in the future.Shandong Province is China’s largest energy consumption province,the total energy consumption in 2020 reached 418.268 million tons of standard coal,accounting for 8.8%of the national energy consumption.At the same time,the consumption of fossil energy,especially coal,has brought about global temperature rise,air pollution and other problems.In the context of severe climate problems and control of carbon emissions,in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,we should reduce the total consumption of fossil energy and promote the use of clean energy.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the optimization of energy consumption structure in Shandong Province during the 14th Five-year Plan period.Papers on energy consumption of typical provinces-Shandong Province as the research object,according to the"Analysis of energy consumption status--Identification of influencing factors--Prediction of energy consumption structure--Combination scenarro analysis" of the research idea,uses the system dynamics(SD),and structural equation model(SEM)and the combination of scenario analysis,and TOPSIS analysis method,and other research methods,combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,the optimal scenario combination scheme of energy structure optimization and adjustment in Shandong Province is found.First of all,according to the analysis of the current situation of energy consumption in Shandong Province,the proportion of coal in the energy structure is decreasing,the proportion of oil is relatively stable,the proportion of natural gas,primary power and other energy in the energy structure is gradually increasing.But the fundamental fact that coal consumption occupies the main position of energy consumption in Shandong Province has not changed.Secondly,the structural equation model was constructed based on the analysis of the current energy consumption situation in S handong Province,the validity of the model was verified by factor analysis,and the key variables of the energy consumption system from the perspective of the structural equation model were determined by path analysis.Third,query the statistical yearbook of Shandong Province to obtain the statistical data of energy consumption system from 2001 to 2020,and build the system dynamics model.Through the sensitivity analysis of system dynamics,find the sensitive factors of energy consumption system from the perspective of system dynamics.Fourth,the SEM path analysis to find the key variables and SD sensitive factors of the sensitivity analysis to find mutual coupling,found that two methods to find the key variables have overlap,this article will these overlapping variable as the energy consumption structure of Shandong Province key variables to optimize the design of the scene combination,and according to the regulation of strength design for low,medium and high three kinds of different scenarios,Based on scenario combination analysis and system dynamics model,the energy consumption structure under different preferences is predicted to discuss and analyze the main scenario combination development mode of energy consumption structure optimization in S handong province in the future planning year.The three combination scenarios with the most significant optimization effect of energy consumption structure are:HA-MB-HC-HD,MA-HB-HC-HD,and HA-HB-MC-HD.However,these three scenarios have high requirements for the four key variables and are difficult to achieve.In the ha-MB-HC-LD scenario under economic preference,MA-HB-HC-LD scenario under industrial preference and MA-HB-MC-HD scenario under social preference,the consumption ratios of coal,oil,natural gas and clean energy in these three scenarios are 53.74:13.68:9.37:14.84,53.66:13.63 9.39:14.93,53.76:13.68:9.39:14.82,the energy consumption structure has obtained appropriate optimization effect,the total energy consumption is controlled at 44996.12,44973.26 and 44949.46 tons of standard coal,respectively.Combined with the difficulty of the realization of the three scenarios,the TOPSIS analysis method was used to study the results.The results show that the MA-HB-HC-LD scenario with industry preference is the optimal scenario combination development mode among the suitable scenario combination development modes.Therefore,during the 14th Five-year Plan period,it is suggested that the average GDP growth rate of S handong province should be 4.6%～4.9%.The proportion of secondary industry is 29.8%～33.4%.The suitable development range of energy consumption intensity of the secondary industry is 0.416～0.542.The appropriate development range for the urbanization rate is 65.05%to 68.05%.We should appropriately slow down the economic development rate,reduce energy consumption intensity,significantly reduce the share of the secondary industry,promote the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure,and increase the scale and level of new energy utilization.