Construction And Simulation Of Carbon Emission Reduction System Dynamics Model In Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia Regions

In recent years,greenhouse gas emissions have had a huge impact on human production and life,people are paying more and more attention to carbon emission reduction,and the situation of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China has also attracted the attention of the international community.On December 12,2020,President Xi Jinping announced at the Climate Ambition Summit that China’s carbon intensity will fall by more than 65%by 2030 compared to 2005.For a long time to come,emission reduction and carbon reduction and high-quality development will be an important strategic theme of China’s ecological environment governance and even national social governance.The core of this paper is to provide a scientific basis for the high-quality development of the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions by exploring a carbon emission reduction path suitable for the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper collects the economic,energy and demographic data of Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions from 2004 to 2019 as the data basis for the research,first introduces the research background and significance;secondly,sorts out the research status and related theories at home and abroad as the theoretical basis;then analyzes the influencing factors of total energy consumption and total carbon emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions by using the LMDI decomposition method,and studies the economic scale,population size,population structure,living energy consumption mode,energy intensity,energy structure,The influence and contribution of these seven influencing factors of industrial structure on the changes in total energy consumption and total carbon emissions were then determined on the basis of the decomposition results of LMDI,and the four factors of industrial structure,energy structure,scientific and technological input and low-carbon awareness were determined as the main regulatory variables,and the carbon emission reduction system in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions,which was composed of four subsystems of economy,energy,society and environment,was constructed using system dynamics,and then the initialization scenario was simulated.The forecast and analysis of the change trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions from 2020 to 2030 are analyzed,and finally the dynamic simulation of one-factor adjustment of the model is carried out,and the parameter feasibility of the one-factor adjustment countermeasure to complete the emission reduction target is low,so the combined factor dynamic simulation is used to find the best carbon emission reduction countermeasure in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions is used.Through the above series of discussions,this paper concludes that under the given scenario,the four single-factor adjustment scenarios can effectively promote carbon emission reduction,of which the energy structure adjustment and emission reduction effect is the best;the double adjustment of energy technology and industrial science and technology in the two-factor adjustment can complete the emission reduction target,and the emission reduction effect of regulating the industrial structure and scientific and technological input at the same time is weaker than that of the simultaneous regulation of energy structure and scientific and technological input;under the three-factor and comprehensive adjustment scenario,in addition to the energy adjustment scenario of low-carbon consciousness industry in scenario two,Other scenarios have achieved the emission reduction targets well,and the comprehensive adjustment of scenarios is the best.Finally,four carbon emission reduction policies were proposed for the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolian-Ningxia regions:First,strengthen the residents’ awareness of low-carbon consumption.Second,Promote energy revolution and low-carbon city pilot,low-carbon energy transformation and structural adjustment.Third,the transformation and quality of the secondary industry,and continuously increase investment in low-carbon science and technology.Fourth,regional cooperation is comprehensive and coordinated,and the complementary elements of advantages are smooth.