Research On The Mechanism Of Temporal-spatial Evolution And Emission Reduction Path Of Carbon Emissions In Shandong Province

In the fast-changing era background, the economy has developed rapidly accompanied by a large amount of energy resources consumption, which led to a large number of greenhouse gas emissions threatening the survival of human environment. The content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is in a rapid increase due to human use of fossil fuels. The data shows that the amount of global carbon emissions is 35.7 billion tons, of which China is the only one with more than 10 billion tons of carbon emissions annually. The amount of carbon emissions in China(10.5 billion tons) is greater than the sum of that in the United States and the European Union. According to the preliminary data of International Energy Agency, the amount of global carbon emissions is about 32.1 billion tons under the premise of global economic growth rate above 3%. Although the situation of carbon emissions shows some sign of improvement, the situation is still grim, and in this background study on carbon emissions has been becoming the hot topic of scholars currently. This paper focuses on the regional carbon emissions perspective in order to provide guidance for regional carbon reduction.Taking Shandong Province as an example, this paper uses system dynamics to imitate the carbon emission process following the evolution rule of carbon emission, so as to provide suggestions for carbon emission reduction at the provincial level. This paper analyzes the present situation of carbon emissions in Shandong Province, discusses the differences of carbon emission efficiency of 17 cities, proposes the spatial-temporal evolution mechanism of carbon emission, simulates the trend of carbon emissions, and finally the carbon emission reduction path and policy recommendations for Shandong Province is presented.This paper is divided into six parts: Part 1 is introduction, which presents the background and the research significance of this paper, reviews the domestic and foreign research related to carbon emissions, and makes a brief introduce of the research methods and contents of this paper. Part 2 is the theory about carbon emissions, among which the material balance algorithm and emission coefficient method is presented while introducing the accounting method of carbon emissions, and then describes the theories related of carbon emission factors and theories related of carbon emission efficiency, which paves the way for the following empirical analysis on carbon emissions in Shandong Province. Part 3 is one of the focuses, describes the present situation of carbon emissions in Shandong Province, analyzes the characteristics of carbon emissions from the perspectives of temporal change and spatial pattern respectively, measures the carbon emission efficiency of 17 cities in Shandong Province using super-efficient SBM model during the period of 2005-2014, and then investigates the influence factors of carbon emissions in Shandong Province and its 17 cities with the method of Malmquist index. And then, the paper uses Kaya identity to decompose the effect of carbon emissions into energy structure, energy efficiency, economic scale and population scale with the panel data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2014, in order to investigate the influence degree of factors in Shandong Province. Then, this paper explores the evolution mechanism of carbon emissions via analyzing effects of economic development, population scale, energy structure and energy efficiency on carbon emissions respectively, finally, investigates the evolution process of carbon emissions system in Shandong Province combined with dissipative structure theory. Part 4 simulates the carbon emission process using system dynamics based on historical data during 2003-2013, and predicts the trends of GDP, the amount of carbon emissions and energy consumption and so on, and then explores the best scenario model for carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province via setting three scenario models. Part 5 presents the carbon emission path in Shandong Province and responding policy recommendations. This part proposes the principles of emission reduction path, and then exhibits four emission reduction path, finally addresses some policy suggestions for carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province. Part 6 concludes this paper. The main innovation of this paper is to investigate the characteristics and regularity of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in Shandong Province from the perspective of spatial and temporal evolution, and explore the carbon emission reduction path on provincial level.