Optimization Of Vehicle Pollution Reduction Strategies Reduction Strategies Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of the economy,people’s living standards continue to improve,and the number of motor vehicles owned continues to grow,aggravating urban traffic congestion and pollutant emissions.Motor vehicle pollution and carbon emissions have become one of the main sources of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.In response,many cities have formulated a series of policies and measures,and researchers at home and abroad have also conducted a large number of related studies.However,different policies have different impacts on motor vehicle travel behavior,and their implementation effects are also different.With the implementation of certain policies,the effectiveness of their implementation will weaken or even rebound.Therefore,exploring the medium and long-term effects of vehicle emission reduction policies has important theoretical and practical significance for optimizing vehicle emission reduction models and formulating and improving emission reduction policies by relevant departments.The main research content of this article is as follows:(1)Construction of vehicle trip decision algorithm.Considering the limitations of the single congestion charging policy,this paper analyzed the dual effect of charging policies on motor vehicle travel using the loss-aversion effect and sunk-cost effect in behavioral economics.Introducing public publicity and public transport priority strategies,and constructed a vehicle trip decision algorithm based on“charging+ public publicity+ public transport priority”.(2)Construction of vehicle energy saving and emission reduction management model.The boundary of the system was determined according to the research content and purpose,and the causal loop diagram was established.Based on causal loop analysis,the vehicle energy saving and emission reduction management model is constructed.The parameters and equations of various variables were designed,CO2 emissions of motor vehicles were calculated,and a cost analysis method was designed to calculate the economic cost of motor vehicle pollutants and CO2 emissions.A nonlinear function expression method based on System dynamics and Metabolism theory(SD-MT)was established.(3)Medium and long term effect evaluation and optimization of vehicle emission reduction strategies.Through dynamic simulation,the dual effects of single charging policy on private car trip are explored from the perspective of medium and long term.In view of the negative effect caused by the charging policy,the optimization strategy of public publicity and public transportation priority is introduced to make up for the deficiencies of the single charging policy.Then it puts forward the technology development strategy from the technical level to explore its effect on energy saving and carbon reduction.Different combinations of emission reduction schemes are constructed,and the relatively optimized emission reduction schemes are selected through the comparative analysis of the effects of different emission reduction schemes on emission reduction,alleviate traffic congestion,energy saving and carbon reduction.Finally,the multiple performance of the optimized emission reduction scheme is calculated to provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for motor vehicle energy conservation and emission reduction management.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Single charging policy has dual effects on private car trip.On the one hand,it will reduce private car trips due to loss-aversion effect,but on the other hand,it will lead to multiple trips of paying travelers every day due to sunk-cost effect,which induces side effects,such as increased motor vehicle pollution and rebound of energy consumption.(2)Strengthening public publicity and public transport priority policy can effectively make up for the deficiency of single charging policy,significantly enhance public awareness of environmental protection,improve public transport service level,inhibit private car travel,and achieve the purpose of reducing emissions and blocking,but the effect on energy saving and carbon reduction is not obvious.(3)Compared with the single charging policy,the combination strategy of “charging + public transport priority development + public publicity + technology development strategy” starts from both the control of motor vehicle trip and the technical level,and combines the advantages of all emission reduction schemes.It is a more effective way to achieve motor vehicle emission reduction,alleviate traffic congestion,energy saving and carbon reduction.By 2030,CO2 emissions and economic costs will decrease by62.73% and 62.71% respectively,and the residents’ health index will increase by43.27%,which means that the combination strategy has significant environmental,economic and health benefits.