Research And Application Of SD-based Risk Assessment Methods For Long-distance Pipelines

The safety and reliability of long-distance oil and gas pipelines are essential for safeguarding people’s lives and property,enterprise production,and the normal development of society.However,these pipelines are typically shallow,thin-shelled,and contain flammable or explosive materials,which can result in severe consequences in the event of an accident.Although the safety of oil and gas pipelines has received increasing attention in recent years,there are still significant risks associated with their operation.Risk assessment of pipelines is a critical means of analyzing the causes of accidents and implementing effective management measures to reduce the incidence of pipeline accidents,which is of great significance to the safe operation of pipelines.Effective pipeline management requires a sensible and updated approach to safety management,which must be kept up-to-date with the changes that have occurred since the pipeline was first commissioned.However,the current risk assessment methods’ index systems only include four primary indicators,namely third party damage,corrosion,design and body,and misoperation,which do not fully reflect the importance of safety management.Therefore,to ensure the integrity of risk indicators,safety management must be included as one of the pipeline’s risk indicators.In order to make the risk assessment of safety management more systematic and in-depth,safety management has to be included as one of the risk indicators of the pipeline.Therefore,this thesis adds safety management indicators to the risk assessment methodology in order to improve the comprehensiveness of the risk assessment.Moreover,the existing risk assessment methods do not consider the variability of the impact of each indicator on the pipeline,leading to less accurate risk assessment results.Therefore,this paper proposes an improved CRITIC modified AHP weighting model,which can dynamically assign weights to each risk factor based on the actual situation of the pipeline.The risk assessment results obtained using the improved model can reflect both expert empirical knowledge and the real and objective data information,avoiding the issue of the difficult combination of coefficients in the combination weighting method.The improved risk assessment method was applied to an in-service oil pipeline and compared with the original method to verify its feasibility and accuracy.To enhance the safety level of pipelines,this paper constructs a complex causal system of oil and gas pipeline safety level impact factors based on accident causation theory,system dynamics theories and methods,and the actual risk factors that cause pipeline failure.The paper establishes a causal cycle diagram and a stock flow diagram with reference to the pipeline risk assessment results.Dynamic simulation of pipeline safety factors was performed to quantify the magnitude of each risk factor’s influence on the safety level of the system and to demonstrate the correlation between pipeline safety level and safety input.The study’s findings have significant implications for developing measures to reduce oil and gas pipeline accidents and for enterprise safety management.