The Prediction Of Industrial Peak Carbon Dioxide Dmissions And The Countermeasures Of Carbon Reduction In Shanxi Province Based On Energy Consumption

Since the 20th century,global climate problems caused by greenhouse gases have affected the survival and development of human beings,which has aroused widespread concern in society.As a responsible country,China is also actively responding to climate change.As a resource-intensive province,Shanxi’s industrial output value accounts for 45% of Shanxi’s total output value,and there are many energy-consuming industries such as steel,chemicals and power plants in the province.Therefore,studying the carbon emissions of Shanxi’s industries will help provide theoretical basis for Shanxi’s industrial sectors and help Shanxi formulate carbon emission reduction policies suitable for industrial sectors.In this paper,the industrial sector in Shanxi Province is taken as the research object,Based on the carbon emission factors provided by the Guidelines for the Compilation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventory(Trial),the carbon emission of Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2019 is calculated by using the carbon emission coefficient method..The LMDI decomposition model is used to decompose the influencing factors of industrial carbon emission in Shanxi Province,and the driving factors and inhibiting factors of industrial carbon emission in Shanxi Province are identified.Based on STIRPAT model,the nonstandard equation is obtained by using SPSS software ridge regression,and the carbon emissions of industrial sectors in Shanxi Province from 2020 to 2040 are predicted by combining with scenario analysis,and the peak value and peak arrival time of industrial carbon emissions in Shanxi Province are obtained.The data used are from Shanxi Statistical Yearbook and China Energy Statistical Yearbook.Finally,suggestions on carbon emission reduction are put forward according to the analysis results.The main results are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2019,the total industrial output value of Shanxi Province increased as a whole,and the industrial employed population decreased as a whole at the end of the year.There were fluctuations between the two,but the fluctuation range was not large,and both the growth rate and the deceleration rate were around 5%;The total energy consumption of eight industrial energy sources in Shanxi Province increased from 120,891,500 tons of standard coal to 147,113,000 tons of standard coal.In the energy consumption structure,raw coal accounted for 80%,and the energy consumption intensity increased continuously from 2010 to 2016,with low energy utilization rate.In2016,The total industrial carbon emission had increased by 19.7189 million tons in ten years,and the growth rate had also dropped from 8% to 2%,and the overall carbon emission intensity had also decreased,indicating that Shanxi’s carbon reduction policy had also achieved certain results.(2)Using LMDI decomposition model,the influencing factors of industrial carbon emission in Shanxi Province are decomposed into four parts.The results show that carbon emissions are rising,in which energy structure and energy consumption intensity are the inhibiting factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shanxi Province,and energy consumption intensity has a greater inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.Economic development and population size are the driving factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shanxi province,and economic development has a stronger driving effect on carbon emissions.(3)Through the prediction of carbon emissions,among the eight scenarios,five scenarios can reach the peak in 2030-2035;Optimizing energy structure,adjusting energy consumption intensity and controlling carbon emission intensity,even if these "negative factors" are in a low-speed development state,can speed up the peak time and reduce the peak amount,while "positive factors" such as industrial population and economic development speed are in a high-speed development state,which will increase the peak value of carbon emission and delay the peak time.In the "low mode" situation,the peak of carbon emissions is not the lowest,nor is it the only one that reaches the peak at the earliest,so the measures to reduce carbon emissions at the expense of economic development are not optimal;Comparing the eight development scenarios,it can be found that the industrial population and economic development maintain a medium-speed growth,and adjusting the energy structure and intensity and controlling carbon emissions(medium-low mode)can not only maintain a medium-speed economic development but also ensure a low-carbon development.(4)Based on the energy analysis and carbon emission calculation results of industries in Shanxi Province,carbon reduction strategies are proposed to optimize energy structure,build a new energy system,develop low-carbon technologies,and improve energy utilization efficiency;Based on the decomposition results of influencing factors,propose suggestions for transforming the economic development mode and enhancing the awareness of carbon reduction among the whole population in response to the economy and population;Finally,leverage government functions to implement carbon reduction strategies.