Carbon Emissions Influence Factors Analysis And Prediction Research In Shanxi Province

The problem of greenhouse gas emissions caused by the consumption of fossil fuels is getting more and more attention. According to statistics, the global fossil fuel combustion generated carbon dioxide emissions of 56.6% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and carbon dioxide emissions by 73.8%. In response to climate change, China is facing double pressure, which is not only facing the traditional ecological and environmental pressures caused by energy development and utilization, but also facing the pressure to slow down the emissions of greenhouse gases. IEA research shows that Chinese is a big country of carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita in 2014 exceeded the world average, has reached the world's total carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels by 24%. This stage is an important stage of China reform and development, construction and development of industrialization and urbanization, need to consume a lot of energy, energy consumption increased, energy consumption growth driven by the growth of carbon emissions. Energy in Shanxi Province, has abundant coal resources, coal is the most important energy in Shanxi Province, from 1949 to 2014, Shanxi produced a total of 164 million tons of coal, external output of coal accounts for 70%, coke and electricity products, Shanxi Province to promote China's economic construction and energy security made significant contribution. But Shanxi province is one of the provinces of China's carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity, and the high energy consumption of resource based economy. At the same time, high carbon dioxide emissions are very prominent, facing a huge energy-saving emission reduction pressure.This article analyses the status of economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shanxi province. The concrete content includes: the economic development of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2014 was introduced; Analyses the present situation of energy consumption in Shanxi Province, namely the terminal energy consumption, the industrial energy consumption and energy consumption elasticity coefficient; Describes the status of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province, namely carbon emissions from 2004-2014, various industrial carbon emissions, the total carbon productivity changes. The analysis of the status quo, for better research on carbon emission situation in Shanxi Province laid the foundation theory and data. Then, the carbon productivity of carbon production in Shanxi province was decomposed by the multidimensional decomposition model. The change of carbon productivity was decomposed into three dimensions.In addition, the industry and the external influence factors, and the driving factors of carbon productivity in Shanxi province were analyzed. Finally, the factors influencing the carbon emissions of Shanxi province were selected as the factors influencing the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province, and the STIRPAT model was established between the 6 indicators, such as the rate of urbanization, the number of population, per capita GDP, the proportion of heavy industry, carbon productivity and financial investment. Using partial least square method to estimate the model parameters, the carbon emissions forecasting model is obtained, and it predicts the carbon emissions of 2015-2020 in Shanxi province. Through this study, we try to find out the mode of low carbon economy development in Shanxi Province, and put forward suggestions and references for the development of Shanxi province. It is also hoped that it can provide reference for other provinces and cities.