Research On The Evolution Of The World Oil Shipping Pattern Based On The Background Of The Normalized Operation Of Arctic Shipping Routes

With global warming and Arctic glaciers melting,the normal operation of Arctic shipping lanes becomes possible.As an emerging route,the Arctic Sea Route has attracted great attention around the world and is of great strategic significance to countries in the Arctic region,near the Arctic and countries that want to obtain Arctic benefits.At present,the Arctic shipping lanes carry an important role such as scientific expeditions and transportation,and the maritime transport carried out through the Arctic shipping lanes involves nearly 70% of the world’s international trade,and the development and use of the Arctic shipping lanes will have an important impact on the world trade pattern and further change the original world maritime transport pattern.Among them,oil resources are of great significance to the national economy and strategy,but the geographical unevenness of oil resources has led to a very active world oil trade.Maritime transportation has become the most important carrier of the world’s oil import and export trade,and a relatively fixed oil shipping pattern has been formed under the condition that exploration and exploitation technology is relatively stable.With the further melting of the ice floes of the Arctic Ocean,the world shipping corridor will usher in new members,whether the emergence of arctic shipping routes can win the favor of oil transporters,and the degree to which arctic shipping routes can change the existing world oil shipping pattern needs to be further studied.Based on the review of the natural conditions,development and utilization,navigation environment,navigation economy,oil trade and oil transportation pattern of the Arctic shipping route,this paper analyzes the distribution of world oil resources,the world’s major oil importing countries,the world’s major oil exporting countries and the world’s oil flow.Analyzing the supply and demand pattern of world oil shipping can better portray the pattern of oil shipping,and then facilitate the analysis of the impact of the normal operation of arctic shipping routes on the world shipping pattern.This paper argues that the Arctic shipping route has an impact on the world maritime pattern from two aspects,namely,the substitution role of the Arctic shipping route on the traditional oil transportation route and the promotion effect of the Arctic shipping route on the oil trade in the Arctic region.Oil trade is affected by many factors such as politics,so this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the normal operation of arctic shipping routes on the world oil transportation pattern from the perspective of transportation.Based on the above basic research,the specific impact of the normal operation of Arctic shipping routes on the evolution of the world shipping pattern is studied.The fifth chapter constructs a negative exponential network distribution model,depicts the world oil shipping pattern under two different scenarios before and after the normal operation of the Arctic waterway,and then compares the transportation pattern of different routes under different scenarios,and analyzes the specific impact of the normalized operation of the Arctic waterway on the evolution of the world oil shipping pattern.The results show that the normal operation of Arctic shipping routes has a greater impact on the selection of oil transportation routes in high-latitude countries,and the pattern of oil shipping in the world has changed as a result.At the end of this article,he puts forward suggestions for the utilization of China’s Arctic shipping routes,including increasing the importance of Arctic shipping routes,formulating corresponding utilization strategies,optimizing the fleet structure to adapt to the complex navigation environment of the Arctic,building relevant ports on the extension line of the Arctic shipping route to meet future freight demand,and strengthening cooperation with arctic national strategic cooperation in oil exploration projects in the Arctic region.The Arctic shipping route has important strategic value for China’s "The Belt and Road" and "Polar Silk Route" strategies,and the improvement and implementation of the Arctic strategy should be accelerated to contribute to the construction of a maritime power.