Research On Safety Evaluation And Countermeasures Of China’s Arctic Route Based On Resilience Perspective

As the global climate warms and the Arctic ice recedes,the navigation environment in the Arctic region has been improved to some extent.As a shortcut to trade between Asia,Europe,which is economically active,and an important source of global energy,this "golden waterway" is bound to change the pattern of world shipping,and the realization of Arctic shipping is bound to change the pattern of world shipping.As an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs,the development of Arctic routes will also bring great economic,political and strategic values to China’s expansion of global development space in the next 30-50 years.However,navigation safety of this "golden passage" is still a major problem faced by the development and utilization of it at present.Due to the special geographical location,extreme weather and "public land" property,navigation safety of the Arctic is far more prominent than that of the general maritime transport channel.Therefore,how to improve the reliability of navigation safety is an urgent question that we need to answer against the background of various risks of Arctic route safety.Resilience theory is a hot topic in the field of safety science.The problem points to the"inaccuracy" and "incompleteness" of risk prediction based on traditional risk management theory under the background of the current open and complex environment.Advocating that the internal and external environment is complex and uncertain,acknowledging the inevitable occurrence of risks,paying attention to how to better resist risks,absorb risks and quickly recover from the crisis state,is of great inspiration and reference significance for us to deal with complex risks.In this paper,the resilience theory is introduced into the safety management of Arctic routes.On the basis of systematic review of relevant domestic and foreign research literature,the status and characteristics of the safety risks of Arctic routes in China are summarized.Based on the resilience theory,this paper explains the ideal state of the safety of Arctic routes,constructs the assessment framework of the safety of Arctic routes from the two dimensions of "vulnerability-resilience",and analyzes the assessment indexes.Finally,the Bayesian network method was used for empirical analysis,relevant statistical data were obtained by means of expert interviews,questionnaire surveys and other methods,and the safety assessment model of Arctic routes was constructed with the Netica software.Through the simulation calculation,the overall level of the current Arctic routes safety is deduced,the sensitivity of the indicators is obtained,and the weak points in the current Arctic route safety management and the direction that needs to be strengthened and improved in the future are clearly concluded,so as to provide decision support for improving the risk management of China’s Arctic routes.