Research On Real-time Assessment And Prediction On Maritime Risk State On The Arctic Route Based On Data Fusion

Recently,with the continuous melting of the Arctic ice,the economic feasibility of Arctic Route would be highlighted and leads to the increasing transportation volume year by year because of the shorter transportation distance compared with the traditional Asia-Europe route.However,navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions,such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty.Nowadays,with the rapid development of various sensor technologies,more and more real-time data has become available.The purpose of this paper is to solve the multilevel dynamic risk assessment of ships on the Arctic route,and to provide reference for the real-time risk management for the management.This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction.Specifically,a comprehensive risk index system based on environment,ship and human factors is firstly constructed.Then real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be obtained with projection pursuit method from ten risk indicators.Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set,information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely.Also,the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly.Lastly,case study based on “Yongsheng” as well as sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.In this dissertation,data fusion and information diffusion are applied to deeply analyzinng the real-time data collected by ship,which provides a new perspective for the dynamic risk assessment of the Arctic route.The findings can be useful for the management and operators on board during the Arctic voyage.At the same time,the reasonable evaluation of route safety is helpful to provide important guidance for operation decisionmaking process of shipping enterprises.