Research On Safety Of Sailing Following Ships In Arctic Route

With the accelerated melting of Arctic sea ice,the potential value of the Arctic region has received more attention.Compared with the traditional route,the Arctic route can effectively shorten the sailing distance of the ship,but the complex and extreme sailing environment greatly increases the sailing risk of the ship,resulting in the occurrence of collision accidents.In order to ensure the safety of navigation vessels on Arctic routes,promote the full development and utilization of Arctic routes,and study the safety status of navigation vessels on Arctic routes,especially under the escort of icebreakers,the safety distance and safety speed between following vessels,icebreakers and following vessels become very important.In the sea area of the heavy ice area of the Arctic route,ships usually follow the icebreaker in the form of single ships or fleets,and the rear ships cannot overtake the front ships,which is similar to the following theory in road traffic.Therefore,based on the car-following theory in road traffic,this paper constructs a ship-following model suitable for Arctic routes to provide support for the safe navigation of Arctic routes.The main research results are as follows:(1)In view of many factors that affect the following navigation of ships on Arctic routes,this paper uses fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to identify the influencing factors.The identification results show that wind,visibility,sea ice density and other factors have great influence on the following navigation of ships on Arctic routes.(2)The following model of ships on the Arctic route is established,and the calculation formulas of safe distance,bow distance and following speed between icebreakers,merchant ships and fleets are derived..(3)Select the "Insein" ship that has traveled the Arctic route many times to verify the ship-following model.The results show that the safe distance calculated by the ship-following model is consistent with the distance maintained by the "Insein" ship and the icebreaker during the actual following navigation.It can be seen that the model of ship following on the Arctic route established in this paper has certain practical significance,which provides scientific decision-making for ship navigation safety on the Arctic route and effectively reduces the navigation risks arising from navigation experience.