Study On The Characteristics And Carbon Neutral Level Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Henan Province

In recent years extreme weather events have often threatened human economic and social development,and limiting greenhouse gas emissions has become one of the key targets for countries around the world.As early as 2009,China set a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% by 2020 compared to 2005.According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),land use sectors such as agriculture and forestry,which emit about a quarter of all GHG emissions,serve as one of the major carbon sources.In this context,this paper constructs an agricultural carbon emission and agricultural carbon sink measurement model,based on the agricultural data of Henan Province from 2009 to 2019,selects Henan’s plantation and livestock industry as the research object,classifies the main carbon sources into 4 major aspects of agricultural labor materials,rice cultivation,livestock breeding and farmland soil,and 2 major categories of carbon sinks,soil carbon sequestration and food crop carbon uptake,and integrates the calculation of Henan’s 2009-2019 2019,followed by the LMDI model to explore the main contributing factors affecting the agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province.Based on the above measured data,we calculate the carbon neutral level of Henan agriculture and other related indicators,and use the gray prediction model to predict the carbon neutral level of Henan agriculture from 2020 to 2035,and analyze its time-series evolution characteristics.Finally,based on the above analysis results,targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to promote agricultural carbon reduction and sink increase.The study shows that,firstly,the agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province from2009-2019 show three characteristics: rapid growth,slow decrease and rapid decrease,and the main sources of agricultural carbon emissions are inputs of agricultural production materials and livestock breeding.On the whole,Henan agricultural carbon emissions show decreasing characteristics in recent years,and the total agricultural carbon sink in Henan Province shows a significant increasing trend during this period,which mainly comes from soil carbon sequestration and carbon absorption of grain crops during the whole reproductive period;secondly,the LMDI model results show that agricultural production efficiency factor and agricultural population size factor play a suppressive role on agricultural carbon emissions,and the agricultural production efficiency factor is the most important suppressive factor of Henan agricultural carbon emissions;agricultural industry structure factor,agricultural economic level factor and urbanization level factor play a driving role in agricultural carbon emissions,and the agricultural economic development level factor is the most important driver of agricultural carbon emissions;third,the net agricultural carbon sink in Henan Province shows a fluctuating growth trend,and the agricultural carbon neutral level is divided into two different stages of change overall during the 11 years: the slow rising stage(2009-2014,2018-2019)and the fast rising stage(2015-2018).The prediction results of the gray prediction model GM(1,1)show that the net carbon sink of Henan agricultural system in2020-2035 still maintains a long-term growth trend,and the total agricultural carbon absorption is always higher than the total agricultural carbon emission in the same period,with a high level of carbon sink;fourthly,this paper considers that improving agricultural production efficiency,improving soil quality,increasing the carbon sequestration capacity of farmland pasture,realizing renewable energy to replace industrial Fourth,this paper argues that measures such as improving agricultural production efficiency,improving soil quality,enhancing the carbon sequestration capacity of farmland and pasture,realizing renewable energy instead of industrial energy use,exploring potential forest carbon sinks and building a carbon trading market can promote the realization of carbon reduction and sink in Henan agriculture under the carbon neutral target.