Research On The Effect Of Chinese Carbon Neutralization Policy

China is currently in the phase of declaring its carbon neutrality policy,aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.The 14 th Five-Year Plan has incorporated carbon neutrality targets for the first time,and a series of policies and actions related to carbon neutrality are underway.The process of achieving carbon neutrality is expected to have a significant impact on China’s macroeconomic and environmental quality.On the one hand,it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions.Considering China’s energy endowment and its status as a developing country,striking a balance between economic growth and environmental improvement is crucial in reducing carbon emissions.This will pose significant challenges to traditional high-carbon-emitting industries and China’s industrial and energy structure.On the other hand,it is necessary to increase carbon sinks.According to existing research,achieving a carbon-neutral society cannot be accomplished solely through technological carbon reduction.Carbon sinks are an indispensable force in achieving carbon neutrality,and social resources will be inclined towards carbon sink industries,driving the development of China’s clean industries.However,achieving carbon neutrality in less than forty years is not easy for a rapidly emerging developing country.We will face the contradiction of improving the environment while promoting economic development.It is crucial to find a win-win solution and balance the interests among various economic entities.Nevertheless,it is undeniable that the achievement of carbon neutrality will create greater development space for China,driving technological progress,industrial transformation,energy transition,and talent cultivation.It may effectively address the issue of regional development imbalance,create more employment opportunities,maximize the benefits of all stakeholders,increase overall social output,and optimize the environment.Based on the above circumstances,this study establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that includes the government,business,and household sectors.MATLAB and Dynare are used to simulate carbon neutrality policies.Under three scenarios of carbon emission reduction rates,the study investigates the impacts of carbon tax,technological shocks,and carbon emission rights price shocks on national economic development and environmental quality.The policy simulation results are analyzed for their dynamic effects,economic significance,and robustness.The study reveals that:(1)The three policies promoting carbon neutrality can achieve the goals of economic growth and improved environmental quality in the short term.In terms of policy effectiveness,the ranking from high to low is: green technological innovation policy,carbon tax policy,and carbon emission rights policy.Although carbon taxes and carbon emission rights policies have a lesser short-term promotion effect on overall social output and environmental level compared to green technological innovation,all three carbon neutrality policies have significant emission reduction effects.They can significantly reduce carbon emissions in the initial stage of policy implementation and maintain a continuous improvement in environmental quality throughout the response period.In the medium to long term,these policies may lead to minor economic contractions while having a more pronounced promoting effect on economic growth than negative effects on economic contraction.(2)A higher carbon emission reduction rate is not always better.A high reduction rate implies greater social sacrifice.Therefore,an appropriate reduction rate is required to effectively promote carbon reduction and improve environmental quality without causing severe economic contraction.A lower carbon emission reduction rate can enhance the restraining effect of exogenous shocks on carbon emissions and improve environmental quality,but it also makes the long-term inhibitory effects of exogenous shocks on output more apparent.Changes in carbon emission reduction rates do not affect the positive effects of carbon emission rights price shocks and carbon tax shocks on output in polluting industries.According to the experimental results,when the carbon emission reduction rate is 0.4,the response effects of major macroeconomic variables to different exogenous shocks are significant.(3)A single carbon neutrality policy cannot consistently achieve the dual goals of improving environmental quality and economic growth.During a certain period,it is necessary to sacrifice economic growth to improve environmental quality.With anappropriate carbon emission reduction rate and short-term conditions,it is easier to balance the goals of economic growth and environmental improvement.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations from three perspectives: government environmental departments,business sectors,and household sectors.From the government perspective:(1)Attach importance to the functionality of carbon sinks;(2)Promote the clean transformation of the energy structure;(3)Adjust the industrial structure;(4)Emphasize the role of the fiscal and tax system;(5)Deepen institutional reforms.From the business perspective:(1)Drive energy technological innovation;(2)Promote the electrification of lifestyles;(3)Enhance emission reduction and carbon reduction capabilities;(4)Improve material utilization rates;(5)Implement precise energy efficiency management.From the household perspective:(1)Promote low-carbon consumption patterns;(2)Increase awareness of carbon reduction;(3)Accelerate the construction of a carbon-inclusive system;(4)Collaboratively promote urban and rural carbon reduction.