Research On Dynamic Risk Early Warning And Quantitative Risk Assessment Technology For Chemical Enterprises Based On The Risk Cloud Chart

Most of the materials involved in processes and storage devices of the petrochemical industry are hazardous chemicals,and there are many potential risks in both production and storage,influencing people’s lives and property at all times.Therefore,it is necessary to assess,monitor and warn of these potential risks.This paper adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,proposes a visual risk cloud map for dynamic early warning of risks,and uses the risk-based quantitative risk assessment technology for major hazard installation to assess corporate personal risks and social risks.Taking the devices of diesel hydrogenation process and propylene storage tank as examples,the purpose is to analyze and predict the change trend of the risk state of the devices,so as to take timely and effective countermeasures to achieve early accident prevention.In terms of risk early warning of chemical process storage devices,a risk early warning technology for chemical enterprises based on dynamic risk cloud map is proposed:Firstly,based on the HAZOP analysis of the evaluated process storage devices,the main risk factors that fit the actual production were summarized,including 22 process devices and 11 storage devices.The ISM risk analysis model was constructed for them,and it was found that the parameter control of the process device and the failure rate and integrity of the process equipment would directly affect the entire device,which should be prioritized for prevention and control.Subsequently,a risk early warning index system was drafted,including 4 first-level early-warning evaluation indexes and 22 second-level early-warning evaluation indexes for process equipment,while 3 first-level early-warning evaluation indexes and 11 second-level early-warning evaluation indexes for storage device.The improved OWA operator method was used to normalize and quantify the risk early warning evaluation index system.Finally,for the dynamic indicators,several monitoring points were set up in the device.According to the deviation of the time characteristics of the risk and the input risk value,a four-color dynamic risk cloud map is formed,thus realizing the dynamic risk early warning of the above two cases,and providing full-process traceability of risks,with high early warning accuracy.Risk-based quantitative risk assessment technology for process storage devices is used in the risk assessment of major hazard installation in chemical enterprises:At first,a statistical analysis of the frequency of events,such as leak sources,weather,and ignition,was performed.The computational fluid dynamics model was used to calculate the mass flow under the aperture leakage,and the P-G model was used to calculate the chemical diffusion under specific conditions.It is found that when the weather level is F,the dominant wind direction is NE,and the large hole leaks,the diffusion distance is the farthest,reaching 256.24 m,which has covered the nearby residential areas.In addition,it is found that the leakage of propylene belongs to two-phase leakage,and the accident type is determined by the accident tree model as fireball and vapor cloud explosion.When a fireball accident occurs,the death radius is 102.01 m,and the death rate can be reduced to 0 at a distance of 201 m from the explosion point.When a vapor cloud explosion accident occurs,the maximum death radius calculated by the TNT equivalent method is 93.72 m.Finally,the risk assessment of the plant area was carried out from the aspects of personal risk and social risk.Through personal risk analysis,it is found that there are no concentrated or permanent buildings in the unacceptable risk area.However,in the tolerable risk area,there is a workshop control room built of color steel plate with a large population density,so it is difficult to bear the risk.By social risk analysis,it is found that the enterprise is basically in the tolerable risk area.Through the actual engineering application,the reasonable feasibility of this research is proved,indicating a good engineering application prospect and practical value.