Study On Risk Evaluation Of Chemical Industrial Park Based On Major Hazard Installations

With the expansion of our country’s petroleum and chemical industry and the development of new urbanization,Chemical enterprises continue to enter the chemical Industrial Park and many local governments establish all kinds of chemical Industrial Park.Chemical Industrial Park can improve the degree of the industry’s concentration,and it also increase risk of the region.The high risk of Chemical Industrial Park is caused by many problems,for example the park’s development level is not high,the park’s layout planning is not reasonable,the incomplete supporting facilities and so on.Traditional safety evaluation focuses on local or enterprises and lacks integrity of Chemical Industrial Park.This article will use the major hazard installation to screen unit of assessment,and build risk assessment model of chemical industrial park by the use of knowledge and theory that associates with the risk.Risk assessment model of Chemical Industrial Park improves traditional risk evaluation method of chemical industry park.First of all,major hazard installation of Chemical Industrial Park will be identified,and is the key research object of risk evaluation.Then it calculates aggregate risk of risk unit caused by major hazard installation,and aggregate risk is the sum of potential life loss of Chemical Industrial Park,that is from the combination of fire,explosion,poisoning accident loss and its probability.The calculation of loss of peoples’ lives uses mature method of traditional risk assessment technology,and the probability is obtained by using fuzzy information optimization processing technology to deal with historical data.Then,it calculates safety risk capacity of Chemical Industrial Park that consists of three parts-the acceptable degree of risk,personnel loss caused by the significant impact of major hazard installation and the rate of the influence factor of safety risk capacity.According to the international and domestic situation,it uses the ALARP method to determine the acceptable risk.It uses the mature security technology method to calculate personnel loss caused by the significant impact of major hazard installation.According to the situation of Chemical Industrial Park,it gets the influence factors of safety risk capacity of Chemical Industrial Park,builds the index system,and calculates the rate of the influence factors of safety risk capacity by using fuzzy mathematical analysis.Then,it makes risk evaluation of Chemical Industrial Park.Safety risk capacity is the limit value of risk of Chemical Industrial Park.It completes risk evaluation of Chemical Industrial Park by comparing aggregate risk and safety risk capacity.Finally,this paper takes a Chemical Industrial Park for example,and makes risk evaluation based on the major hazard installation.And many proposed methods will be verified.