Research On China’s Carbon Emission Reduction Path Under The "Dual Carbon" Target

Addressing climate change is one of the important means to promote the high-quality developmen t of China’s economy.To this end,China has proposed the 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutral target("dual carbon" Targets).In order to achieve the "dual carbon" goal,China’s economic development mode should be changed to the economic development mode of high efficiency,low energy consumption and low emission.The industrial structure has a direct impact on energy consumption and carbon emissions.Therefore,under the background of "dual carbon",it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to achieve economic growth and carbon emission reduction targets by adjusting the industrial structure.Based on this,this paper constructs a linear optimization model,and designs emission reduction scenarios and industrial structure adjustment rules to obtain the optimal structure of each sector,so as to explore the carbon emission reduction path under the "dual carbon" goal.The first innovation contribution of this paper is to combine the "carbon emission" input-output model with dynamic inputoutput model,and the second is to construct a linear optimization model under the "dual carbon" goal.The research process is as follows:Firstly,the "carbon emission" input-output table and dynamic input-output table with 30 kinds of energy are compiled.Secondly,through the "carbon emission" input-output table,the economic influence coefficient,economic sensitivity coefficient,energy consumption influence coefficient and carbon emission influence coefficient of each department are analyzed,and the static industrial structure correlation results are obtained according to the coefficient strength.Then,based on the"carbon emission" input-output table and dynamic input-output table data,a linear optimization model under carbon emission reduction constraints is constructed.According to the economic growth and carbon emission reduction targets,three industrial structure adjustment rules are designed under three scenarios(basic scenario,carbon constraint scenario and economic carbon constraint scenario),so as to predict the carbon emission reduction path of China from 2018 to 2060 under different scenarios.Finally,the results of static industrial structure correlation and dynamic emission reduction path prediction are comprehensively analyzed,and the carbon emission reduction path under the "dual carbon"target is discussed.The results are as follows:(1)Without the introduction of policies and technologies,China cannot achieve the carbon neutrality goal by 2060 under the nine scenarios,but can achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030 under the carbon constraint scenario and the economic carbon constraint scenario.The time to reach the peak is 2022,and the carbon emissions at the peak are between 139.57 and 209.02 billion tons.(2)Taking 2017 as the base year,without introducing policies and technologies,China’s GDP will reach the maximum in 2022-2025 and the minimum in 2060,with the maximum GDP between 140.82 and 200.95 trillion yuan.(3)The changes of carbon intensity under different scenarios are quite different.Among them,the decline rate of carbon intensity in the third industrial structure adjustment under the carbon constraint scenario is the most obvious.In 2030 and 2060,the carbon intensity decreased by 70.54%and 78.48%respectively compared with that in 2005,and decreased by7.89%and 15.83%respectively compared with that in 2022(when carbon peaked).(4)In terms of the scope of industrial structure adjustment,before the peak(2018-2022),the industrial structure adjustment range between 0.8-1.2 is more favorable to the economy and emission reduction,and after the peak(2023-2060),the industrial structure adjustment range between 0.9-1.1 is more favorable to the economy and emission reduction.(5)In terms of the industrial structure of each sector,the sectors with greater contribution to economic growth include the 5 "non-metallic minerals and other mining products",26 "water production and supply",28 "transportation,warehousing and postal services",29"wholesale and retail and accommodation" and 30 "other" sectors.The sectors with greater emission reduction potential include the 6 "food and tobacco",11"petroleum,coking products and nuclear fuel processing products",12 "chemical products",14 "metal smelting and rolling processing products" and 27 "construction" sectors.This paper provides a scientific basis for China to further adjust its industrial structure,achieve high-quality economic development and "dual carbon" goals.