Study On Influencing Factors And Spatial Spillover Effects Of Regional Carbon Dioxide Emissions In China

The World Meteorological Organization(WMO)released an interim report on the State of the Global Climate 2022 on November 6,2022.It pointed out that the past eight years have been the hottest oN global meteorological records,and human society urgently needs to pay attention to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.As a major emitter of carbon dioxide in China,reducing carbon emissions has become a real problem that needs to be solved urgently.Therefore,how to effectively identify the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions,and then make precise policies according to local conditions,not only has a direct bearing on whether China’s "dual carbon" strategic goals can be achieved in high quality,but also has great significance for promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,grasping the initiative of scientific and technological innovation and improving the international competitive advantage.In this regard,this paper carries out the following research on China’s carbon reduction.First,based on the measurement of carbon dioxide and its related impact indicators,the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics were analyzed from the national,regional and provincial levels.Secondly,based on the extended STIRPAT framework,carbon dioxide emissions,economic development level,human capital,scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China during 2000-2020 were selected to analyze the effects of relevant factors on carbon dioxide emissions by using the two-way fixed effect model.The robustness test,synergy effect analysis and regional heterogeneity analysis were further carried out.Then,the spatial spillover effect of carbon dioxide emission intensity was studied by introducing spatial weight matrix of geographical distance,economic distance and nested spatial weight matrix of economic geography,and the spatial Dubin model was used to further carry out robustness test and decomposition effect analysis.Finally,according to the research conclusions,the relevant countermeasures are put forward.The following four conclusions are drawn:(1)From the perspective of temporal and spatial differences,carbon dioxide emission and intensity in China showed a rising trend and a decreasing trend respectively.The situation of carbon dioxide emission reduction in western China,the Yellow River high-quality development area and most provinces in Northeast China was still relatively severe.The provinces with high carbon dioxide emission intensity were mainly located in Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,Qinghai,Ningxia,Gansu and Shanxi.(2)From the perspective of effect,the industrial structure upgrading,per capita GDP squared term,population density and actual utilization of foreign capital,the interaction term of higher human capital and R&D investment intensity,the interaction term of higher human capital and industrial structure upgrading,the interaction term of R&D investment intensity and industrial structure upgrading can significantly reduce the carbon dioxide emission intensity.(3)From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,the regional factors that can significantly reduce CO2 emission intensity are reflected in the per capita GDP square item and population density in eastern China;Advanced industrial structure,per capita GDP squared and fixed asset investment in the central region;The square term of per capita GDP and urbanization in western China;Per capita GDP squared of Northeast China;The square term of per capita GDP,the interaction term between higher human capital and industrial structure,and the interaction term between R&D investment intensity and industrial structure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region.The regional factors that can significantly improve CO2 emission intensity are reflected in the fixed assets investment in eastern China.Population density and fixed asset investment in western China;Population density and urbanization in the high-quality development area of the Yellow River.(4)From the perspective of spatial effect,in the nested spatial weight matrix of economic geography,In neighboring provinces,the intensity of R&D expenditure,per capita GDP squared term,population density,actual utilization of foreign capital,investment in fixed assets,interaction term between higher human capital and R&D expenditure intensity,interaction term between higher human capital and industrial structure,and interaction term between R&D expenditure intensity and industrial structure can significantly reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emission in the region.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the levels of policy,society,enterprises and individuals.