The Study Of Spatial Spillover Effect And Influencing Factors Of Interprovincial Carbon Emissions In China

With the rapid development of economy and the integration of world economy,people are enjoying a high level of economic development,but at the same time they are inevitably suffering from various environmental pollution problems brought about by economic development.At present,the international community has begun to attach importance to environmental pollution,especially the global climate change caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions,which has attracted the attention of all countries around the world.Each country has made continuous efforts to reduce carbon emissions.With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization,Chinese economy keeps growing.At the same time,economic growth has brought problems such as lack of resources and aggravation of environmental pollution.As a big energy consuming country,Chinese energy consumption and carbon emissions have also become one of the hot issues of concern.China has pledged to reduce CO₂ emissions per unit GDP by60-65%by 2030 compared with 2005.Achieving the overall national carbon emission target requires the joint efforts and cooperation of all provinces and localities.Based on this,this paper firstly analyzed the current situation of carbon emissions in various provinces and regions of China from 2003 to 2015,and analyzed its spatial distribution characteristics.In recent years,Chinese per capita carbon emissions have been increasing in recent years,and they are non-balanced in space,which shows that the carbon emissions in the northern region,economically developed areas,energy and heavy chemical industry-rich areas are significantly higher than those in other provinces.Then this paper constructs the spatial weight matrix of trade by using the inter-provincial railway freight volume,and further uses the spatial Markov chain method and the spatial panel model to analyze the spatial spillover effect of per capita carbon emissions in Chinese provinces.The results show that per capita carbon emissions in China have a spatial spillover effect linked by trade.There is a positive spatial correlation between the carbon emission levels of the provinces,and the per capita carbon emissions of each province will be affected by each other.This paper also analyses the influencing factors of the per capita carbon emission level of each province,and studies the impact of population density,economic level,industrial structure and technological progress on per capita carbon emission by constructing a panel STIRPAT model and QAP analysis in social network analysis.This paper also innovatively decomposes technology into three different technological progress,which are independent R&D investment,technology spillover from foreign direct investment and technology spillover from outward foreign direct investment.It is concluded that population density has a restraining effect on per capita carbon emissions.Economic level,the proportion of secondary industry to GDP and independent R&D investment have a promoting effect on per capita carbon emissions,while the impact of technology spillover from foreign direct investment and technology spillover from outward foreign direct investment on per capita carbon emissions in the region is not significant.Economic level,the proportion of secondary industry to GDP,technology spillovers of foreign direct investment and technology spillovers of outward foreign direct investment each has a significant impact on per capita carbon emissions in the surrounding areas.That is to say,these economic factors have a spatial spillover effect of trade distance.In QAP,this paper further takes trade between provinces as an independent variable matrix,and constructs the provincial carbon emission correlation matrix to further analyze the impact of trade on carbon emission correlation.The results confirm that trade between provinces does have an impact on the carbon emission correlation between provinces,which further proves the existence of spatial spillover effect of trade distance in per capita carbon emission among provinces.Finally,according to the research conclusion,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the realization of carbon emission reduction in China,such as attaching importance to cooperation,exerting the role of spatial spillover effect,changing the mode of economic development,optimizing the layout of industrial structure,improving the level of technology research and development,encouraging and guiding foreign investment and attracting foreign investment to energy-saving and environmental protection fields and knowledge-intensive industries.