Research On Influencing Factors And Spatial Convergence Of Carbon Emission Intensity Of Transportation In China’s Provinces

In recent years,the contradiction between the rapid development of the economy and climate warming,environmental pollution and resource consumption has become more prominent,and such problems faced by developing countries have become more apparent.In this regard,the Chinese government at the Paris Climate Conference in 2015 promised that“the carbon emission intensity in 2030 is 60%to 65%lower than that in 2005”,and in 2016,the carbon emission intensity during the13^thFive-Year Plan period was reduced by 18%.The goal is that China faces enormous pressure on carbon reduction.The transportation industry,as an industry closely related to social production and residents’lives,is second only to the energy sector in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.Focusing on the perspective of the transportation industry,analyzing the characteristics of carbon emission intensity and its influencing factors play an important role in achieving the goals of energy conservation and emission reduction and carbon emission intensity.In addition,if the intensity of carbon emissions from inter-regional transportation tends to converge,it will undoubtedly provide a new way to achieve the goal of carbon intensity.To this end,this paper first calculates the carbon emissions of transportation based on the“top-down”method proposed by IPCC,and measures the transportation carbon emission intensity(T_CEI)of 30 province,municipality and autonomous（excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan）in 2003-2017 according to the concept of carbon emission intensity,and analyze its changing characteristics and regional differences.Secondly,eight factors including the development scale,urbanization level,transportation structure and energy intensity of the transportation industry are selected to construct an extended STIRPAT model to analyze the influencing factors of transportation carbon emission intensity.Finally,the econometric model considering the spatial effect is constructed to explore the spatial absoluteβand conditionalβconvergence characteristics of the carbon emission intensity of transportation.The results show that the carbon emission intensity of China’s provincial transportation in 2003-2017 is generally declining.It can be seen that the economic growth of the transportation industry is greater than the growth rate of its carbon emissions;according to the regression results of the expanded STIRPAT model panel data,the level of urbanization Industrial structure and transportation structure will promote the growth of carbon emission intensity of transportation,while the development scale of transportation industry,transportation structure,energy intensity,opening level and degree of government intervention have an inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emission intensity of transportation;The carbon emission intensity of transportation has absoluteβconvergence characteristics;after the eight factors affecting the carbon emission intensity of transportation are introduced into the spatial measurement model as external control variables,the carbon emission intensity of China’s provincial transportation has the characteristicβconvergence characteristic and the convergence speed increases.36.9%.Based on the above research conclusions,it can provide data support and theoretical basis for China to develop differentiated transportation energy conservation and emission reduction policies,and provide reference for promoting and achieving coordinated development.