A Study On The Drivers Of Industrial Carbon Emissions And Their Decoupling Effects In China’s Provincial Regions

China is the largest developing country and a major carbon emitter,and low-carbon development has become an important direction for balancing economic growth and carbon emission reduction goals due to global climate governance responsibilities and the need for economic development transformation.The key to balancing carbon emissions and economic growth lies in the industrial sector,but regional industrial development is uneven,and there are spatial and temporal differences in industrial growth and industrial carbon emissions.Therefore,it is important to analyze industrial carbon emission drivers at the provincial level and grasp the relationship between industrial growth and carbon emission changes to promote local industrial carbon emission reduction and sustainable development of industrial growth according to local conditions,so as to achieve the goal of "double carbon".First,according to the methodology of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the carbon emissions generated by industrial fossil energy in the provinces from 2000 to 2019 were measured,and the evolution trend of industrial carbon emissions and industrial growth was analyzed,and it was found that the total industrial carbon emissions in each province from 2000 to 2019 showed a stepped distribution from coastal to inland and from east to west,and an inverted "U" shape trend of growth followed by decline.Industrial carbon emissions and industrial value added grew in a roughly similar trend during the 2000-2010 period,with some provinces showing reverse changes since 2010.Second,the LMDI decomposition model based on the time-varying parametric C-D production function decomposes China’s provincial industrial carbon emissions into carbon emissions caused by six factors: carbon emission intensity,energy structure,energy intensity,technological progress,capital stock,and labor input,and explores the driving role of the factors influencing provincial industrial carbon emissions in terms of geographical and stage analysis.Taking the year 2000 as the base period,the results show that energy intensity is the negative driver of major industrial carbon emissions in each province from 2001 to 2019.In terms of geographical distribution,industrial carbon emissions in northeast and west are mainly driven positively by capital stock and labor input factors,and the main driver of industrial carbon emissions in east is labor input;in terms of time dimension,the carbon emission reduction effect of energy intensity gradually increases,and the carbon emission increase effect of capital stock increases in 2006-2010,in 2011-2015 and 2016-2019,the carbon emission increase effect continues to decrease,and the carbon emission effect of capital stock and labor input changes in opposite directions,indicating that while controlling the scale of fixed asset investment,industrial carbon emissions may expand through labor input,and the carbon emission intensity,energy structure,and technological progress carbon emission increase effect is smaller and the direction of each The direction is unstable at each stage.Finally,on the basis of LMDI carbon emission decomposition model,combined with Tapio decoupling elasticity analysis model,the decoupling effect of industrial carbon emission and industrial growth is measured,and the decoupling effect is decomposed into six decoupling factor effects.2001-2019,the decoupling effect of industrial growth and industrial carbon emission in the northeast,west,east and central regions is enhanced in turn,and each stage goes through The decoupling relationship changes from "no decoupling and weak decoupling coexist-weak decoupling dominates-weak decoupling and strong decoupling coexist-strong decoupling dominates";the decomposition of the decoupling effect reveals that the performance of industrial carbon decoupling in each region is closely related to the change of driving factors The decomposition of the decoupling effect reveals that the performance of industrial carbon decoupling in each region is closely related to the change of drivers,and the biggest contributor to the change of the above relationship is energy intensity,while it also benefits from the improvement of decoupling of labor input,capital stock and technological progress in the later stage,while Heilongjiang,Ningxia and Xinjiang,where decoupling is poor,are mainly hindered by energy intensity,capital stock and labor input.Combined with the above findings,policy recommendations are proposed for China’s industrial low-carbon development and the achievement of the "double carbon" goal.