Research On The Driving Mechanism And Peaking Of CO₂ Emissions In China

Since China proposed the carbon peaking target,the driving mechanism and peaking of CO₂emissions have received more and more attention.Industry,population and energy resources are unevenly distributed across provinces.And the COVID-19 outbreak has a greater impact on the China’s economy.Therefore,grasping the CO₂emission driving mechanism,predicting the peak value of CO₂emission and giving reasonable emission reduction policy suggestions have important theoretical and practical value for the sustainable development of energy and economy in China and its provinces.This paper uses the kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method to dynamically analyze the driving mechanism of CO₂emissions in China and 30 provinces.On this basis,the scenario analysis method is used to explore the future peaking of CO₂emissions in China and its 30 provinces,and explore the driving mechanism of China’s future carbon emissions under the benchmark scenario.Finally,this study proposes China’s CO₂emission reduction strategy from the perspective of energy consumption.The results are as follows:The driving mechanism of China’s CO₂emissions is population and per capita GDP promote CO₂,and carbon intensity of the energy structure and energy intensity inhibit CO₂.The short-term decomposition results of China’s CO₂emissions are quite different from the long-term decomposition results;Affected by the COVID-19,the effect of per capita GDP decreased,the emission reduction effect of energy intensity significantly decreased.The driving mechanism of CO₂emissions in the province is not exactly the same as that of the country.Under the baseline scenario,China is likely to achieve the goal of peaking CO₂emissions from2025 to 2030,with a peak value of about 10.8 billion tons.There are 13 provinces in China that have reached the peak ahead of schedule,and Inner Mongolia and Shanxi will not be able to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.The reduction of the population effect and per capita GDP effect,and the enhancement of the carbon intensity reduction effect of energy intensity and energy structure are the reasons for China’s carbon peak in the future.Based on the above research conclusions,we put forward some policy suggestions:encouraging green and low-carbon lifestyle,accelerating the upgrading of industrial structure,improving energy efficiency andoptimizing energy structure.