Study On The Spatial And Temporal Evolution Of Land Use Carbon Emissions And Land Use Optimization In Hubei Province

With rapid economic development,carbon emissions caused by anthropogenic activities such as fossil fuel combustion and land use change have gradually become the main factors affecting global warming.In the context of advocating low-carbon economic development,quantitative research on land use carbon emissions and low-carbon land use optimization has become the focus in the field of regional land resource management.Based on this,this paper takes Hubei Province as the research object,firstly,we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in Hubei Province with the help of land use change analysis model using five periods of land use data in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 as the basic data,and then explore the spatial evolution of land use from 2000 to 2020 using direct and indirect estimation method and spatial display function of GIS.The spatial and temporal evolution of land use carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 was explored using direct and indirect estimation methods and the spatial display function of GIS.Secondly,the main factors influencing the land use carbon emissions in Hubei Province are decomposed and identified with the help of LMDI model.Finally,the Markov model and multi-objective linear programming model are used to predict the land use quantities in Hubei Province in 2030 under natural and low carbon scenarios respectively,and the spatial pattern of land use under the two scenarios is simulated by the PLUS model,in order to provide theoretical reference for the optimization of low carbon land use in Hubei Province in 2030.The main research findings are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the land structure of Hubei Province basically remains stable,with forest land and arable land as its dominant land types,and the comprehensive land use dynamic attitude takes 2010 as the inflection point,showing a trend of increasing and then decreasing change.The net increase in area is 2238.52km~2,and the main sources are arable land(conversion rate of 46.47%)and forest land(conversion rate of 36.96%),and the transfer area shows a radial expansion trend with Wuhan,Yichang and Xiangyang as the center.The outflow area of arable land is the largest,and its net reduction area is 2475.80 km~2,mainly to construction land(conversion rate 46.47%),forest land(conversion rate 28.14%),and watershed(conversion rate 23.90%),and its loss areas are mainly concentrated in Wuhan,Qianjiang,Jingzhou,Xiantao,Tianmen and Jingmen cities in central Hubei Province.The two-way conversion of forest land,grassland and water area is significant,and the trend of single transfer out of unused land is obvious,among which the area of water area shows a trend of increasing and then decreasing with 2010 as the inflection point,and the area of forest land,grassland and unused land shows a continuous decreasing trend.(2)The total carbon emission from land use in Hubei Province is increasing linearly from3400.47×10~4t in 2000 to 19931.87×10~4t in 2020,of which 16530.50×10~4t is the increase of carbon source and 1.11×10~4t is the decrease of carbon sink,the carbon emission from construction land is the main contributor of carbon source and the carbon absorption from forest land is the main contributor of carbon sink.the main contributor of carbon sink.The spatial distribution of carbon emissions from land use shows that,except for Shennongjia Forest Area and Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture,the province has different degrees of carbon emissions,and its spatial distribution shows a spatial distribution trend of"one main and two vice,decreasing circles".Among them,the heavy carbon emission area is mainly distributed in Wuhan City,the high carbon emission area is mainly distributed in Xiangyang City and Yichang City,and the medium carbon emission area and low carbon emission area are mainly distributed around Wuhan City,Yichang City and Xiangyang City in a decreasing circle trend.(3)The results of LMDI decomposition of land use carbon emission show that land use carbon emission intensity,land use structure and per capita GDP play a positive pulling role on the growth of land use carbon emission,while the economic efficiency factor of land use plays a negative pulling role,and the role of population factor on land use carbon emission turns from pulling to inhibiting with 2015 as the inflection point.Spatially,the effect of each factor on land use carbon emission in each city and state is consistent with that of Hubei Province,among which the land use structure,GDP per capita and land use carbon emission intensity of Shennongjia Forest Area play a negative pulling role on the growth of its land use carbon emission,the land use economic efficiency plays a positive pulling role,the land use carbon emission intensity of Shiyan City plays a negative pulling role on the growth of its land use carbon emission.The total population has a fluctuating effect on the land use carbon emission of each city and state.(4)Comparing the quantitative structure of land use in 2030 under the natural and low carbon scenarios,it is found that land use under the low carbon scenario has more carbon emission reduction potential,and the total land use carbon emission under the low carbon scenario is lower than that of the natural scenario by about 3020.92×10~4t,with a reduction rate of 9.50%.In the natural scenario,the area of arable land,forest land,water area,grassland and unused land is rapidly decreasing,and the construction land is rapidly expanding.Under the low carbon scenario,the decreasing trend of arable land,water area and unused land is alleviated,and the expansion rate of construction land is more slowly;PLUS simulation results show that under the low carbon scenario,the orientation optimization of land use types is more significant,and the quantitative structure of land use in cities and states is significantly improved,among which the arable land and construction land show an overall trend of convergence to the east and south,which is more significant in Wuhan,Jingmen,Tianmen City,Qianjiang City,Xiantao City,Jingzhou City showed an increasing trend of concentration,and in Shiyan City,Shennongjia Forest Area,Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture,Suizhou City,Huangshi City,Xianning City,Huanggang City,the area showed a decreasing trend.Woodland,grassland and water area as a whole showed a trend of spreading distribution to the east and south,and their areas in Wuhan,Jingzhou,Xiangyang,Yichang,Tianmen,Qianjiang,Xiantao and Ezhou cities showed a trend of spreading increase.