Research On The Temporal And Spatial Evolution Charact-Eristics And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In Cities Along The "The Belt And Road"

In the context of global warming,seeking the factors that influence the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions is not only an important way for China to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction goals,but also a key basis for forcing the transformation of economic development patterns.Based on the energy balance method,the paper calculates the carbon emissions of 140 cities along China’s "the Belt and Road" from a top-down perspective from 2008 to 2018,and then constructs a spatial weight matrix of adjacency,geographic and economic distance,and from time series and space Two aspects analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in cities along China’s "the Belt and Road".Then,on the basis of analyzing the spatial correlation of carbon emissions,the spatial Dubin model is used to carry out an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in the cities along China’s "the Belt and Road",and the cities along China’s "the Belt and Road" are divided into There are four major regions in Northwest China,Northeast China,Southwest and inland areas,and eastern coastal areas.Empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in different regions has been conducted,and recommendations for carbon emission reductions are made.Through theoretical research and empirical analysis,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the characteristics of time series evolution,the overall carbon emissions of cities along China’s "the Belt and Road" show a trend of rising volatility and a clear trend;in the characteristics of spatial evolution,under the three spatial weight matrices of adjacency,geographic and economic distance,China’s "the Belt and Road" During the study period,the spatial positive correlation characteristics of carbon emissions in cities were highly significant,and the spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions was slightly weakened,basically showing the characteristics of high north and low south,but the number of cities in the low range continued to increase.(2)Per capita GDP,the number of permanent residents at the end of the year,and foreign direct investment have a significant promotion effect on urban carbon emissions,and the per capita disposable income of urban residents has an inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions.Per capita GDP,the number of permanent residents at the end of the year,the total GDP of the secondary industry,and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have significant spatial spillover effects on the carbon emissions of surrounding cities.(3)For the Northwest region,per capita GDP,the number of permanent residents at the end of the year,the total GDP of the secondary industry and foreign direct investment have a significant promotion effect on urban carbon emissions,and the per capita disposable income of urban residents has a depressing effect on urban carbon emissions.Per capita GDP,the number of permanent residents at the end of the year,and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have significant spatial spillover effects on the carbon emissions of surrounding cities;for the Northeast,the per capita GDP,the number of permanent residents at the end of the year,and the total GDP of the secondary industry have an impact on the city Carbon emissions have a significant role in promoting carbon emissions,and foreign direct investment has a significant inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions;for the southwest and inland regions,per capita GDP,year-end permanent population,secondary industry industry value as a share of total GDP and foreign direct investment It has a significant role in promoting urban carbon emissions.The per capita disposable income of urban residents has a depressing effect on urban carbon emissions;for the eastern coastal areas,per capita GDP,the number of permanent residents at the end of the year,and foreign direct investment have a significant role in promoting urban carbon emissions.The per capita disposable income of urban residents has an inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions,and the per capita GDP and the total GDP of the secondary industry industry value have a significant role in promoting carbon emissions in surrounding cities.