Research On Prediction And Control Model Of Carbon Emissions From China’s Thermal Power Based On System Dynamics

A series of extreme weather,such as global warming and glaciers melting caused by excessive emissions of carbon dioxide,have been threatening the surviving of human being and the development of society.Influenced by China’s special energy structure of "rich coal,poor oil and less gas",thermal power will continue to be the main type of China’s power generation structure at present,and will continue to play a leading role in the power generation field in the future for a long period of time.Because of burning coal,thermal power generation has the characteristics of great carbon emissions and high energy consumption,and is facing high pressure of energy saving and emission reduction.Therefore,it is analyzed and forecasted that carbon dioxide emissions in the thermal power industry is of strategic significance for developing low-carbon economy and achieving China’s targets of energy saving and emission reduction.Firstly,this paper describes China’s thermal power industry by building Kaya extended model,and establish the Logarithmic Mean Divisional Index(LMDI)based on this to analyze the main factors affecting the carbon emissions in the thermal power industry in China.The results showed that three factors promote the rise of carbon dioxide emissions in thermal power industry,namely,economic scale,population scale and energy structure,which play a positive driving role;power structure,coal consumption of electricity supply and power intensity can help the thermal power industry to inhibit carbon dioxide emissions;improving energy efficiency,upgrading thermal power technology and increasing investment can also inhibit the increase of carbon emissions in the thermal power industry in China.Secondly,according to the decomposition results of LMDI and combined with the System Dynamic(SD),the SD model of carbon emission from thermal power in China is built.Model testing shows that the actual situation of thermal power carbon emissions can be truly described by the established SD model and it can be used as the prediction model of future thermal power carbon emissions in China.Finally,based on the decomposition results of LMDI model and SD model of thermal power carbon emissions,five indicators of economic development,population,electricity proportion,coal consumption of power supply and emerging Carbon Capture and Storage technology investment are set into nine development scenarios,and Vensim software is used to simulate and predict China’s thermal power carbon emissions from 2018 to 2035 under different scenarios.The results show that BD2 development scenario is the best development path for China’s future thermal power.For the analysis results above,this paper puts forward some suggestions on carbon emission reduction of thermal power from low carbonization of power structure,low carbonization of science and technology and low carbonization of government policies,so as to help China achieve its target of carbon emission reduction as soon as possible.