The Analysis And Optimization Model Of Beijing's Energy Substitution For The Environment Reduction Targets

Energy, environment and economy are the three elements of social development. They constitute a huge system of economic and social development by influencing and restricting each other. Energy is the source power and it is essential to promote economic and social development. On the one hand, the economic growth need the support from energy, scilicet, energy promote the growth of the economic. On the other hand, the prerequisite of sustainable energy development must be the economic growth. In the process of economic development, people tend to ignore the harmonious development relationship between them, always lose one of them. Now, China's economy has sustained rapid growth in30years. Though provide people with thriving material and spiritual cultural products continuously, some questions more and more serious, for instance, environmental pollution, ecological damage, lack of resources. Some local governments understand the growth of economic just is the development of GDP. They get rapid economic growth simply rely on putting in mass production factors, it causes waste of resources and environment pollution seriously. However, based on the experience of developed countries, to achieve sustainable economic and social development is related to the survival and development of our country. Therefore, China formally submitted a "People's Republic of China on Environment and Development report" to the UN Conference on Environment and Development in1992. The report clearly put forward the view to achieve sustainable development. Hence, sustainable development will be an important guiding principles and strategic objectives of the work when our country disposes every work. In order to analyze the specific relationship between China's energy consumption and environmental emissions and propose specific methods and approaches to optimize the energy structure and the power structure, the paper carried out the research of the following aspects:(l)Analyze Beijing's status of energy consumption and emissions and the relationship between them. Propose optimization ways of alternative energy by combined with domestic and international research on alternative energy trading. Our country should launch alternative energy in primary energy trading, users participating in alternative energy trading; clean Energy to participate in the thermal power alternative trading and inter-regional energy alternative trading.(2)In order to grasp the relationship between energy consumption and environmental emissions, we construct system dynamics model of Beijing energy consumption and environmental emissions, and we analyze the causal relationship between energy consumption and pollutant emissions. We also construct flow stock diagram. We apply the authenticity and validity of the proposed model in previous years of historical data inspection. We carry out the system simulation to the relationship between energy consumption and environmental emissions under emission reduction targets of Beijing. We also carry out sensitivity analysis to the results of different development scenarios.(3)We construct wind power and thermal power energy-efficient scheduling optimization model based on time-of-use price by introducing time-of-use price. Then, we construct two-stage optimization model of alternative thermal power trading by joint operation between wind power and pumped storage power station and we solve the model by applying binary particle swarm optimization. Finally, we propose distributed energy generation alternative to traditional thermal power trading optimization model and carry out the corresponding analysis of examples.(4)We propose regional power generation efficiency evaluation model based on improved rough set on the basis of inter-regional energy alternative trading basic theory. We compare analysis of power generation efficiency in different regions and analyze the impact of different venture attitudes and environmental emissions pressure on the regional energy alternative transaction and compare the applicability of core method and Shapley value method.in the aspect of alternative energy trading profit distribution.