Research On The Influence Mechanism Of Sustainable Utilization Of Agricultural Water Resources In Hubei Province Based On System Dynamics

Water resources are the material guarantee for social and economic development and the lifeblood of agricultural development.In recent years,frequent floods,uneven distribution of water resources,and deterioration of the water environment have gradually become three major problems that plague people’s production and life,and are also important factors restricting the rapid development of my country’s society.With the continuous expansion of urban scale and rapid population growth,people’s demand for water resources has gradually increased,and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has gradually intensified,leading to worsening water crisis problems and seriously restricting the development of agricultural production.Therefore,it is very important to strengthen the utilization efficiency of water resources,scientifically develop and utilize water resources,and implement the sustainable development strategy of water resources.Hubei Province is located in the south-central part of China,and agricultural water consumption accounts for about 50% of the total water consumption in Hubei Province.However,due to the uneven geographical distribution of water resources,and the urgent need to improve the awareness of environmental protection and water conservation,water pollution caused by agricultural production and water resource problems have become increasingly prominent,which in turn has led to agricultural water resource pollution,agricultural water cannot be used effectively,and water conservation These problems are extremely unfavorable to the agricultural development of Hubei Province,so it is of great significance to carry out research on the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province.Based on the principles of sustainable development theory,this paper uses the literature analysis method to carry out research on the sustainable development of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province.(1)Introduce the background of the sustainable use of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province and the research status at home and abroad;from the relationship among resources,economy,environment and sustainability,put forward the evaluation and prediction model for the sustainable use of agricultural water resources,and form A theoretical framework for the sustainable use of agricultural water resources,and an analysis of the factors affecting changes in agricultural water resources in Hubei Province.(2)Use the improved entropy weight method to calculate the weights of each index,and use the comprehensive weighted summation model to calculate the resource,economy,environment,and sustainability indices.Based on the above data,calculate the sustainable utilization index of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province in 2020,and according to The current situation of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province and the evaluation level of sustainable use of references are divided,and a simple analysis of the current situation of the development and utilization of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province,the degree of sustainable use of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province,and then an analysis of the development and utilization of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province The main problem exists.(3)Clarify the causal relationship between relevant factors in the development of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province,use the system dynamics method to construct a system dynamics model for the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province,and conduct relevant tests to ensure that the model can run smoothly.(4)According to the current social and economic development status and future development needs of Hubei Province,set up four scenarios of natural development,economic development,environmental development and resource conservation,and simulate the sustainability of agricultural water resources in prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province from2021 to 2035 Utilization degree,the research results show that the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in the natural development scenario gradually declines in the simulation results of the four scenarios.began to decline gradually,with the most significant decline in the environmental development scenario.(5)Comprehensively analyze the impact of the four development scenarios on the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province,and propose a composite regulation development scenario for simulation.The results show that in 2035,the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in western Hubei and northeastern Hubei is the best,entering a state of strong sustainable utilization,and the improvement effect is significant.Therefore,the sustainable use of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province under the scenario model of compound regulation and control has the best effect,which can be used as a recommended model for future agricultural development in Hubei Province.Recommendations for sustainable use of water resources.