Climate Change,Investment In Ageicultural Research And Agricultural Total Factor Porductivity

In the future,China’s agriculture needs to be transformed into a sustainable development model with high efficiency,resource conservation and environment friendliness.At the same time,climate change has brought severe challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture on which human beings depend.The key to maintain the sustainable growth of agricultural economy is improving agricultural TFP,However,climate change exerts great uncertainty on the improvement of agricultural TFP through the impact on agricultural output and input level.Agricultural research investment is expected to play a decisive role in adapting to the impact of climate change on agricultural production.Therefore,how to deal with the impact of climate change is an urgent problem to be answered.Based on the data of agricultural TFP,agricultural scientific research investment and climate change from 1987 to 2015,this paper attempts to analyze the impact of climate change and agricultural scientific research investment on agricultural TFP,and analyze the potential role of agricultural scientific research investment in coping with the impact of climate change on agricultural TFP.This will also be the first exploratory study in the field of climate change research to mitigate the impact of climate change on agricultural TFP through scientific research investment mechanism.The results show that:1.The growth of agricultural TFP is significantly affected by climate change.On the whole,the growth of the annual average temperature is conducive to the promotion of agricultural TFP.When the average temperature rises by 1 ℃,agricultural TFP will increase by 0.12%.The increase of annual precipitation will inhibit the growth of agricultural TFP.When the annual precipitation increases by 1000 mm,agricultural TFP will decrease by 1.68%.The precipitation density,high temperature and low temperature of extreme climate have significant negative effects on agricultural TFP.When the precipitation density,high temperature and low temperature increase by 1%,agricultural TFP will decrease by 0.27%,0.12% and 1.05% respectively.2.The investment of agricultural scientific research has a significant positive effect on the growth of agricultural TFP.Agricultural research investment can promote agricultural innovation and technological progress,and agricultural TFP growth largely depends on agricultural technology progress.3.Other social and economic variables will also significantly affect the growth of agricultural TFP.The regression coefficient of agricultural structure is significantly negative,that is,the increase of the proportion of grain crop planting area is not conducive to the promotion of TFP in China.The influence of rural highway density,irrigation area proportion and rural electricity consumption on agricultural TFP is significantly positive,which indicates that the more perfect rural infrastructure is,the more conducive to the growth of agricultural TFP.4.The effects of annual temperature and annual precipitation on agricultural TFP are different in different regions.Specifically,except that the annual temperature in South China has a significant negative effect on agricultural TFP and that in Northeast China is not significant,the annual temperature increases in East China,North China,central China,southwest and Northwest China are conducive to the growth of agricultural TFP.The increase of annual precipitation in North China,Northeast China and Northwest China will promote the growth of agricultural TFP,while the increase of annual precipitation in East China,South China,Southwest China and central China will inhibit the increase of agricultural TFP.Precipitation density,high temperature and low temperature have significant negative effects on agricultural TFP in most areas.5.Agricultural research investment has played a role in coping with the impact of climate change on agricultural TFP,but this effect also has obvious differences in space and region.For example,the agricultural research investment in North China and Northeast China well coped with the impact of temperature and precipitation density on agricultural TFP,but did not adapt to the impact of annual precipitation change on agricultural TFP.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:when formulating climate change adaptation policies,the government should correctly recognize that the impact of climate change on agricultural TFP has significant regional differences,and should not adopt a "one size fits all" approach.China should increase investment in agricultural research,especially in northwest,southwest,northeast and central China In order to adapt to climate change,the actual needs of agricultural development in various regions should be clarified,and the right medicine should be given to the case,so as to continuously improve the field and efficiency of agricultural research investment.