A Study On Coupling And Coordination Of Water Resources-Economy-Environment System In The Lower Yellow River

The coordinated development among water resources,economy and environment is the basis of regional high-quality development,and the three are interlinked,mutually constrained and mutually promoted.The lower reaches of the Yellow River,as the mouth of the Yellow River into the sea,occupies an important geographical position in the whole Yellow River basin,and its coordinated development or not has a great impact on the highquality development of the Yellow River basin.In recent years,the modernization process of the national governance system and capacity of the lower Yellow River has been accelerated,but the problems of water shortage,uncoordinated water-sand relationship,serious sedimentation and poor ecological background still exist,and these problems seriously restrict the high-quality economic development of the lower Yellow River.Based on this,it is important to carry out research on the coupled and coordinated development of water resources-economy-environment system in the lower reaches of the Yellow River for the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the whole Yellow River basin.In this paper,on the basis of a thorough analysis of the current situation of the lower reaches of the Yellow River,the framework of the relationship between water resources,economy and environment system is sorted out by combining relevant domestic and foreign researches,and an index system including 30 indicators such as average annual rainfall,natural population growth rate and PM2.5 is established by using factor analysis method,and weights are calculated for the index system by using the modified combination weight method,and a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources-economy-environment system and coupled coordination evaluation model are established for the lower reaches of the Yellow River.Finally,we used the modified BP neural network prediction model with sparrow search algorithm to predict the coupling coordination degree by scenarios.The main findings are as follows:(1)The comprehensive evaluation index of water resources-economy-environment system along the lower reaches of the Yellow River shows a fluctuating upward trend,with an average annual increase of 5.61%,reaching 0.6756 in 2020,among which the comprehensive evaluation index of three subsystems of water resources,economy and environment in Jining is relatively high.(2)The level of coupled and coordinated development of water resourcesenvironment system of cities along the lower Yellow River is better than that of water resources-economy system and economy-environment system,and the average value of coupled and coordinated degree of water resources-environment system of cities along the lower Yellow River is 0.8016 in 2020,which is in good coordinated development.(3)Spatially,the coupling coordination degree of water resources-economy-environment system among cities along the lower reaches of the Yellow River shows a clustering distribution,and the coupling coordination degree of the lower reaches of the Yellow River shows a fluctuating growth between 2006 and 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 2.62%.(4)The coupling coordination degree of the lower Yellow River between 2006 and 2020 is predicted by scenarios,and it is found that under scenario 5,the coupling coordination degree of water resources-economy-environment system develops best,and the coupling coordination degree reaches 0.9157 in 2027,which is a high-quality coordination development stage.