Research On Evaluation Of Sustainable Utilization Of Water Resources In The Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeratio

With the acceleration of urbanization and extensive economic growth in central Yunnan,the problems of water shortage,unreasonable development and utilization and ecological environment degradation in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration have become increasingly prominent,which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.Therefore,the evaluation and research of sustainable use of water resources has important reference significance for the urban agglomeration of central Yunnan to realize the sustainable use of water resources between population,society,economy and ecology.Based on the connotation of sustainable utilization of water resources,this paper selects the evaluation indicators from the perspective of "water resources conditions-water resources development and utilization level-socio-economic level-ecological environment level",and determines the five-level grading standard of evaluation indicators based on the research status and regional overview at home and abroad.Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to screen the indicators successively to construct an evaluation index system for sustainable use of water resources.Aiming at the problem that the importance between multidimensional indicators is difficult to define in the evaluation process,an improved normal cloud evaluation model is proposed exploratorily,which can avoid the cumbersome steps of index empowerment and reflect the synergy between indicators.The traditional and improved normal cloud models were used to comprehensively evaluate and study the sustainable utilization level,temporal and spatial change trend and influencing factors of water resources in central Yunnan urban agglomeration.The mathematical analysis method is applied to compare and analyze the evaluation results of the two models,and the feasibility and rationality of the improved normal cloud model are clarified,which provides a new evaluation model and ideas for the evaluation of sustainable use of water resources.Finally,the main obstacles hindering the sustainable use of water resources in central Yunnan are identified through the transformed obstacle model,and countermeasures are proposed.The main research results are as follows:(1)Build an evaluation index system for the sustainable use of water resources in the urban agglomeration of central Yunnan.Summarizing the physical geography,socio-economy,water resources development and utilization level and ecological environment status of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan,four subsystems of "water resource conditions-water resources development and utilization level-socio-economic level-ecological environment level" were initially established as the criterion layer,and 41 evaluation indicators were selected to form the index layer.Subsequently,24 evaluation indicators were screened out by combining correlation analysis and principal component analysis,and the evaluation index system was optimized to avoid redundancy and interference of index information.Combined with relevant research data,the sustainable utilization level of the index is divided into five evaluation levels: "high","high","moderate","poor" and "poor".With the acceleration of urbanization and extensive economic growth in central Yunnan,the problems of water shortage,unreasonable development and utilization and ecological environment degradation in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration have become increasingly prominent,which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.Therefore,the evaluation and research of sustainable use of water resources has important reference significance for realizing the sustainable use of water resources in the population,society,economy and ecology of urban agglomerations in central Yunnan.Based on the connotation of sustainable utilization of water resources,this paper selects the evaluation indicators from the perspective of "water resources conditions-water resources development and utilization level-socio-economic level-ecological environment level",and determines the five-level grading standard of evaluation indicators based on the research status and regional overview at home and abroad.Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to screen the indicators successively to construct an evaluation index system for sustainable use of water resources.Aiming at the problem that the importance between multidimensional indicators is difficult to define in the evaluation process,an improved normal cloud evaluation model is proposed exploratorily,which effectively avoids the cumbersome steps of index empowerment and strengthens the synergy between indicators.The traditional and improved normal cloud models were used to comprehensively evaluate and study the sustainable utilization level,temporal and spatial change trend and influencing factors of water resources in central Yunnan urban agglomeration.The mathematical analysis method is applied to compare and analyze the evaluation results of the two models,and the feasibility and rationality of the improved normal cloud model are clarified,which provides a new evaluation model and ideas for the evaluation of sustainable use of water resources.Finally,the main obstacles hindering the sustainable use of water resources in central Yunnan are identified through the transformed obstacle model,and countermeasures are proposed.The main research results are as follows:(2)An improved normal cloud evaluation model is proposed.Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to quickly and subjectively determine the multi-dimensional nonlinear indicators in the evaluation process,combined with the advantages of the cloud generator of the traditional normal cloud model to realize the randomization and discretization of indicators,a projection tracing model is established on the index membership matrix,and the particle swarm algorithm is used to solve the best projection of the model,and the information characteristics of the evaluation unit are independently mapped,which avoids the cumbersome step of artificial weighting of multi-dimensional indicators,which is conducive to reflecting the synergy between indicators.The evaluation results of the improved normal cloud model and the traditional normal cloud model are compared and analyzed,and it is found that the comprehensive evaluation index of sustainable water resources utilization of the two models is mainly distributed in the grade III.medium sustainable range,with small interannual fluctuations,and the overall upward trend.The evaluation level is basically the same,and a few regions differ by one level during the same period;The introduction of mathematical statistical parameters reveals that the evaluation results of the two models are highly similar,which verifies the feasibility and rationality of improving the normal cloud evaluation model.(3)Analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of sustainable utilization of water resources in central Yunnan from 2011～2020.From the perspective of spatial scale,in2011～2015,water resources were mainly at the level of moderate sustainable utilization of grade III.,a few reached the level of high sustainable use of level II.,and the internal gap was small during the same period,and the overall ranking of sustainable use level of water resources was Chuxiong> Qujing> Kunming > Yuxi;In 2016～2020,with the improvement of economic and scientific and technological level,the level of water resources development and utilization in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration was improved,but there were differences in the improvement range,resulting in the overall ranking changing to Kunming> Chuxiong> Qujing >Yuxi.From the perspective of time scale,the sustainable utilization level of water resources in Kunming has improved the most,with an increase of nearly 45% in 2011～2020,from the level of moderate sustainable utilization of level III to the level of high sustainable utilization level of level I.Yuxi has the smallest improvement,always maintained at the level of moderate sustainable utilization of level III.,and fluctuates repeatedly within the range of level III.(4)The obstacles to the sustainable use of water resources in central Yunnan urban agglomerations have different similarities and differences.From the perspective of the criterion layer,the primary obstacle system of Kunming and Chuxiong is the ecological environment subsystem,and the primary obstacle system of Qujing City and Yuxi is the socio-economic subsystem.From the index level,the main obstacles of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan are the proportion of water used by the ecological environment,the water production coefficient,the ownership of 10,000 scientific and technological personnel,the per capita grain,the area of natural wetlands and the per capita water supply.(5)Propose corresponding countermeasures for the specific obstacle indicators of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan.The four cities need to continue to strengthen the governance of the ecological environment,ensure the water consumption of the ecological environment,and coordinate to control the non-point source pollution of the water environment.At the same time,with the continuous expansion of production scale in central Yunnan and the intensification of the siphon effect of the population,it is necessary to strengthen the strategy of strengthening the market for scientific and technological talents and revitalize the high-quality development of all dimensions;In addition,it is necessary to continue to promote the water diversion project in central Yunnan to ensure the quantity and quality of water resources;Finally,it is urgent to stabilize the efficiency of water resources development and utilization,and actively build a new water-saving society.