Research On The Impact Of Group-Occurring Marine Disasters On The Sustainable Development Of Marine Economy In China

Sustainable development is development that can meet the needs of the present without posing a hazard to the ability of future generations to meet their needs,and sustainable development of the marine economy is the concrete embodiment of the concept of sustainable development in the field of marine economy.However,under the condition of global warming,the sea level continues to rise,coupled with the cluster,unpredictability and disaster chain effect of marine disasters are becoming more and more prominent,which has an important impact on the sustainable development process of China’s marine economy.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of cluster marine disasters on the sustainable development of China’s marine economy for the formulation of marine disaster prevention,mitigation and relief policies and the sustainable development of the marine economy.However,most of the existing studies are focused on the disaster assessment,impact evaluation and risk assessment of a single marine disaster,and the existing literature is not detailed and systematic for the study of the impact of marine disasters on the sustainable development of China’s marine economy.Therefore,this thesis takes the chain study of "impact factor identification-index system construction-comprehensive disaster assessment-development level measurement-impact effect assessment-policy recommendation" as the axis."Based on the sustainable development theory,we design and build the evaluation index system of sustainable development level of marine economy;adopt AHP-CRITIC combination weighting method Based on the theory of complex system,we reveal the influence mechanism of cluster marine disasters on the sustainable development of marine economy,and construct the system GMM model and panel threshold model from the overall level of coastal areas,different time and regional spatial dimensions,to quantitatively assess the damage or damage of cluster marine disasters on the sustainable development of China’s marine economy.The systemic GMM model and panel threshold model are constructed to quantitatively assess the damage or sideelevating effect of cluster marine disasters on the sustainable development of China’s marine economy and the trend of this effect as sea level rises.The comprehensive disaster index of cluster marine disasters shows that Guangdong Province,Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province have the most serious cluster marine disasters,while the disaster indexes of Hebei Province,Jiangsu Province,Liaoning Province,Shanghai City and Tianjin City have been maintained at a low level and have decreased significantly this year.The results of measuring the sustainable development level of marine economy show that,in general,the sustainable development level of marine economy in China shows a dynamic fluctuation trend,and the absolute and relative differences between regions show a fluctuating and slow decline in the overall situation.In the subsystem,the level of marine economic development shows a slow upward trend,while the comprehensive evaluation index of marine resources and environment subsystem shows frequent fluctuations.The sustainable development level of marine economy in most coastal areas is in a strong sustainable stage,while Hebei Province and Guangxi have been in a weak sustainable state.Most of the coastal areas have been at a high level of coupling within the marine economic sustainable development system,Guangxi is still at a moderate disorder stage,while a considerable part of the coastal areas is in a barely coupled and coordinated state.In addition,cluster marine hazards affect the sustainable development level of the marine economy mainly through the social development of coastal areas at the overall level of coastal areas,and the effect is positively enhanced.The spatial heterogeneity test reveals that the cluster marine hazards contribute to the coupling degree of marine economic sustainable development system in the coastal areas with less severe hazards(Class I)and significantly inhibit the marine economic growth in the coastal areas with more severe hazards(Class II),which also has a significant negative impact on the coupling and coordination degree of marine economic sustainable development system.The cluster marine disasters significantly hindered the marine economic development of the coastal area with more severe disaster occurrence(class III),but at some level promoted the positive development of the social subsystem in this coastal area.In the test of temporal differences,it was found that the cluster marine disasters affected the sustainable development of the marine economy mainly through the social subsystem of the coastal area in 2006-2010,while they affected the sustainable development of the marine economy mainly through the marine resources and environment subsystem in 2011-2015.There is a double threshold effect of the sea level rise level on the sustainable development of marine economy by the impact of cluster marine disasters.When the level of sea level rise is less than 22 mm,there is no significant negative impact of cluster marine hazards.At this time,the cluster marine hazards have a significant contribution to the sustainable development of marine economy from a certain level,and the contribution effect is gradually strengthened with the improvement of the sustainable development level of marine economy.However,when the sea level rise is in the range of [22,50] or greater than50 mm,the cluster marine hazards have a significant inhibitory effect on the sustainable development of marine economy,and the negative effect gradually increases with the deepening of the sea level rise.