Research On Monitoring And Earlywarning Of The Sustainable Development Of Shanghai Marine Economy Based On Prosperity Analysis

In the 21 st century, the ocean, as the space and resources for human being’s survival and development, has become a new growth point of China’s national economy. On January 10 th 2012, the State Oceanic Administration approved the implementation plan of “the monitoring and evaluation system of Shanghai marine economic operation in 2011”, indicating that the development of the monitoring and evaluation system of Shanghai marine economic operation will be in full swing. The monitoring and early-warning analysis and the judgment of the current state and future trends of marine economic development are of great significance to guarantee the sustainable development of the marine economy in Shanghai.The article first mentions the background and meanings, the main contents and methods, as well as the research framework and the possible innovation points etc. The previous theory and research achievements concerning the monitoring and early-warning of the sustainable development of Shanghai marine economy have been studied. The article establishes the monitoring ind icator system of marine economic development, which contains 20 ind icators. Then the grey correlation analys is method is applied to classify those indicators into three categories: leading, coincident and lagging ind icators. According to the prosperity analys is of Shanghai marine economic development from 2006 to 2011, the Diffus ion Index and Composite Index can be calculated, which reflect the turning points and the degree of marine economic development. Besides, this artic le designs the early-warning s ignal system of Shanghai marine economic development, and achieves the comprehensive early-warning indexes and early-warning signal graph. Finally, the sustainable development of marine economy in Shanghai is analyzed and evaluated, and an index to assess the level of the sustainab le development of marine economy is established in order to make longitudinal or horizontal comparison of different countries or areas. Research achievements can help make early warning of the trans ition of marine economy in the future and provide the basis for drawing up relevant marine economic policy.