Study On Risk Sharing Of Senior Services PPP Mode Based On Evolutionary Game

In the context of the aging population,there is a large amount of unmet demand for elderly care in China,but the current elderly care system lacks matching ways and means to supply senior services.In order to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the senior services industry,significantly improve the quality of senior services for the elderly population at the current level,and meet the demand for diversified senior services,the government should seek new modes to solve the problem of insufficient supply of senior services.The introduction of the PPP mode in senior service projects has emerged in this context.The PPP mode for elderly care services can integrate the advantages of the governmental and social capital.It not only optimizes the fiscal financing channels,but also makes use of the sound construction experience of social capital to improve the operational efficiency of senior service institutions and meet the growing demand for senior services from different groups of people.The initial construction investment of senior services PPP projects is large,with a long payback periods,and involves multiple participants.The risk sharing mechanism of senior services PPP mode is not mature enough,which is the main factor hindering its development.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the risk sharing problem of PPP mode in elderly care services in this thesis.This thesis firstly combines domestic and foreign literature to study the feasibility and necessity of introducing the PPP mode for senior services projects on the one hand,and discuss the problems existing when applying the mode,on the other hand,the risk sharing principles and methods in the literature are studied.Secondly,the relevant concepts,characteristics and theoretical basis of the PPP mode for senior services are elaborated.The characteristics of risk sharing in the PPP mode of senior services are sorted out,and it is found that there are problems in the risk sharing mechanism of the PPP mode of senior services,such as high risk potential in the early stage of some projects,diluted operational risk sharing in some projects,lack of quantification of the risk sharing scheme in practice,and unclear administrative role,etc.It is found that these problems are caused by the lack of experience in the design of risk sharing mechanism at this stage,the governmental ideology restricting the enthusiasm of social capital investment,the lack of good policy and regulatory environment,and the lack of unified supervision power.Finally,a three-stage framework for risk sharing in the PPP mode of elderly care services.Based on the lack of quantification of the risk sharing scheme found in the previous thesis,an evolutionary game model of risk sharing is constructed by mainly exploring the game sharing stages of shared risk.The respective behavioral decisions of the government and social capital cooperation are analyzed,and the shared risk sharing ratio at the equilibrium of the optimal evolutionary strategy is studied.Based on Matlab simulation,the mechanism of relevant parameters influencing the willingness of government and social capital to cooperate in risk sharing is investigated.The results of the study show that the dominant strategy of government departments is to actively share the risk,and in order to improve the enthusiasm of social capital cooperation and achieve the optimal strategy of active government commitment and active social capital cooperation,the proportion of risk sharing shared by social capital should be lower than the obtained threshold value,and factors such as regulatory fines of higher authorities and public reputation benefits will also affect the strategy choice of both parties.Finally,based on the simulation results,we propose countermeasures: both public and private parties should reasonably determine the risk-sharing ratio and actively share risk benefits,and government departments should improve PPP laws and regulations,build a good incentive system,and establish a sound supervision system,so as to produce guidance for optimizing the risk-sharing scheme of PPP mode for elderly care services.