| In the formulation of risk sharing scheme for large-scale engineering projects under the traditional delivery mode,it is only pointed out that the risk is borne by one or more parties,and the proportion of each party is not clear,which is easy to cause disputes.As the latest project delivery mode,Integrated Project Delivery(IPD)has been shown to effectively solve the disadvantage of operating separately in the traditional mode and improve the effect of risk management.How to reasonably and effectively distribute various risk factors among the participants is of great significance for improving the success rate of large-scale engineering projects,giving full play to the advantages of IPD,and maintaining the stability of IPD team.Therefore,this thesis takes large-scale engineering projects under the IPD mode as the research object,and conducts in-depth research on the identification and evaluation of risk factors throughout the construction process,especially on the reasonable risk sharing methods and proportions among participants.This has great theoretical significance and engineering practical value for improving the management theory of large-scale engineering projects under the IPD mode and guiding engineering project management practices.Firstly,in view of the problems such as the increasing complexity of large engineering projects and the new delivery mode accompanied by new risks,this thesis adopts literature analysis method to identify the original risks under the traditional mode and the unique risks under the IPD mode respectively,and carries out a secondary analysis combining with the relevant data of engineering projects to obtain a preliminary list of risk identification.On this basis,the Delphi method is used to establish a relatively complete set of risk factors,so as to identify the risk factors in the whole process of largescale project construction under the IPD mode.Secondly,the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of risk loss were evaluated comprehensively through expert investigation.The risk matrix method was used as the main basis to establish the risk importance index and determine the importance ranking of risk factors.According to the risk grade classification standard,all risk factors are divided into three levels: "high,medium and low",risk analysis and evaluation are completed,and the priorities of risk sharing management are sorted out.Thirdly,based on game theory,with the owner,the whole process consultant and the construction party as the risk sharing subjects,a threeparty static game model under complete information is constructed to carry out preliminary risk sharing,and the sharing subjects of each risk factor are determined.The risk borne by a party alone is then distributed.Aiming at the risk shared by two parties and three parties,a bargaining game model under incomplete information and a threeparty understanding bargaining game model based on the adaptive expectation are constructed respectively,and the distribution proportion of risk factors among the sharing subjects is clearly divided.Thus,a "three-level and four-stage" risk sharing system is formed in the whole construction process of large-scale engineering projects under the IPD mode.Finally,the simulation research method is used to introduce the IPD mode into a highway project in Zhengzhou,to carry out risk identification,evaluation and sharing work successively,to fully demonstrate the implementation process of the established risk sharing system,and verify its rationality and operability in engineering practice.The research results show that the risk sharing system established in this thesis for large-scale engineering projects under the IPD model can fully respect the wishes of all participants,and reach a clear risk bearer and proportion through friendly negotiation within the IPD team.The proportion of risk sharing among all parties is relatively balanced,which shows the advantages of IPD model and the rationality of risk sharing model. |
