Simulation Of Carbon Electricity Trading For Large Users Based On System Dynamics

The promotion of electric power marketization reform and the introduction of carbon emission trading system are of great significance for our country to cope with climate change,reduce greenhouse gas emissions,and achieve the "double carbon"goal.Large power users play an important role in both the electricity market and carbon trading market.Studying their trading demands,trading strategies and trading risks in two markets is of great significance for large users to achieve efficient and clean energy use,cost control and accomplish emission reduction targets.On the basis of analyzing current construction and operation status of domestic and foreign electricity and carbon markets,this study took major electricity users in the steel industry as research object,screened the main influencing factors of electricity and carbon trading,sorted out the interaction process of various influencing factors of major power users in the steel industry during electricity and carbon trading,and analyzed the coupling mechanism between carbon electricity markets.Based on this,considering policy constraints,economic benefits,environmental values and other factors,a system dynamics trading model was constructed to simulate large users’participation in electricity and carbon markets.Power purchasing strategy of large users in new electricity market and carbon performance path optimization measures in national carbon market environment were proposed,then the impact of power purchasing strategy and performance measures on economic and environmental benefits of large users was analyzed,and the risks of large users in the process of power trading and carbon performance were assessed.The research results indicated that:(1)The proposed strategy could meet the renewable consumption and production demand of large users at the same time;(2)As the proportion of free quotas decreased,the carbon emission cost and risk level of large users increased,and the quota gap at the end of the fulfillment period increased,which would lead to an increment in carbon trading activity;(3)The carbon trading management measures proposed in this study could effectively promote large users to complete carbon compliance,while reduce carbon emission costs and risk levels at the end of the compliance period,and provide optimal compliance paths for large users from the perspectives of economic benefits,risk preference and market resource allocation efficiency according to the actual needs of large users under different free quota ratios;(4)The development of capacity replacement projects would indirectly promote carbon compliance by reducing emissions,and its optimization effect was reflected in environmental benefits,as the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking increased,the annual average carbon emission intensity per ton of steel for large users decreased;(5)Under different free quota distribution proportions,the proposed combination schemes showed good optimization effects in terms of economic benefits,environmental benefits,and risk control.