Identification Of Operational Status Of Electricity Market Based On System Complexity

The world-wide reform in electricity market started from the1970s last century. In view of the pattern and system of electricity market all around, the main trend is to break monopoly and create competition. It is certain that the electricity industry advances from planned to market. In2002, China started the reform in electricity market, after9years of practice, how to evaluate the market efficiency is of theoretical and practical significance.Based on System Complexity, electricity market was treated as a complex economy system in this paper. Grey theory, Synergy theory and Catastrophe theory were used combined with the attributes of electricity market to study the evolutional and operational status of the market with qualitative and quantitative analysis. The specific study contents are as follows:(1) The systematic, economy attributes and complexity of electricity market were done with qualitative analysis; the structure, operational level and mechanism of electricity market were described; based on Fractal theory, the self-similarity of electricity market was done with quantitative analysis and together with non-linear, self-organization and other features to illustrate the complexity of electricity market.(2) Electricity market was divided into five sectors and five subsystems were defined as market structure, market behavior, market supply and demand, market transaction and market performance for energy production, energy trading and energy demand sectors. Combined with Grey theory and Synergy theory, a synergistic evolutionary model of electricity market was established to reveal the dynamic relationship within the subsystems. A case was studied to show that settlement price and total surplus were the order parameters of the target market.(3) The relationship between order parameter and market operational status was studied, a potential function of electricity market was established based on the principles of Catastrophe theory, three types of operational status were defined and an identification rule was set up. Then, a case was employed to show the process of status identification of electricity market.(4) Regarded the state in order as the criterion of effective operation in electricity market, showed the effective operation domain and boundary and achieved the function of early warning in electricity market.