Modeling Of Multi-oligopoly Retail Electricity Market With Conditional Value-at-Risk Concerned

Opening up the retail electricity market is a key point in China's new round of power system reform.As China,s retail electricity market is still immature,the electricity retailers' revenue risk management technology and market fImanagers'management methods are not perfect,so relevant research for the reference of electricity retailers and market managers is urgently needed.In this paper,firstly,we analyze the risk sources of electricity retailers in the process of purchasing and selling electricity,combined with the conditional value at risk(CVaR),establish a CVaR-based electricity retailers5 electricity purchasing and selling risk model,and quantifiy the risk of the electricity retailers to a visual value;Secondly,combined with the characteristics of the interaction of various entities in the electricity retail market,the model structure of the dynamic game of the multi-oligopoly market is constructed.Under this framework,the revenue model and the risk model of the established electricity sales company are integrated,and a dynamic game model of purchasing and selling of the multi-oligopoly electricity retailers considering CVaR is proposed.According to the characteristics of the model,the general modeling software GAMS is used to solve the model,and the overall solution process of the model is given;Finally,Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the fluctuation of spot price of electricity in the spot market.In order to ensure the simulation precision of Monte Carlo simulation method,a large number of simulation experiments are carried out,and it is more appropriate to determine the spot market electricity price data of 200 scenes by using MATLAB.On this basis,the GAMS software is used to simulate the four examples designed,and some related laws of the multi-oligopoly market are obtained:1)The newly established electricity sales company is at a disadvantage in terms of revenue and risk compared with the existing electricity company;2)The electricity retailers can coordinate the purchase of electricity in various power purchase channels,which can effectively control the cost of purchasing electricity;3)A electricity retailer under a complete information dynamic game is more suitable for risk-taking strategies;4)The oligopolistic electricity retail market presents a certain degree of monopoly characteristics,which harms the interests of users.However,as the number of electricity sales companies in the electricity sales market increases,the market power of the sales companies can be reduced,and the distribution of interests between the sales companies and users can be reasonably controlled.It can provide strategic support for the purchase and sale of electricity retailers,and also provide a reference for market management of market managers.