Energy Trade Network Model And Its Evolution Mechanism Along The Belt And Road

In 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping of China proposed a cooperative initiative to build the "New Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road",also known as "the Belt and Road"."The Belt and Road" Initiative is multifaceted open and inclusive..Among them,energy cooperation is the top priority of "the Belt and Road" construction.Promoting the sustainable development of energy trade in countries along "the Belt and Road",it is a win-win way to promote common development and common prosperity of countries along "the Belt and Road".As an important part of energy production and circulation among countries,the research on energy trade has become the important issue that cannot be ignored.By constructing fossil energy evidence network model,renewable energy competition network model and cooperation network model,this thesis aims to seek the energy trade relationship of countries along the Belt and Road.The specific research content of this thesis is reflected in the following three aspects:(1)From a new perspective of the multi-layer network,the trade pattern of fossil energy in "the Belt and Road" is studied.In the process of model construction,combined with D-S evidence theory and complex network theory,an evidence network model under uncertainty framework is constructed.The evidence centrality index(EVC)to measure the influence of nodes is proposed,and the effectiveness of EVC is verified by comparing with some benchmark centrality indexes.The empirical results show that Russia,Kazakhstan,China and other countries have high influence.And resource endowment is the most important factor which affects national status,followed by geographical distance,economic level and economic growth.(2)From the perspective of energy structure,the trade pattern of renewable energy products along "the Belt and Road" is studied.Through export similarity index and trade complementarity index,competition network and cooperation network models are constructed respectively.The empirical results demonstrate that the competitive market is not as mature as the cooperative market.Secondly,the point weight distribution and edge weight distribution of the competition network and cooperation network show power-law characteristics.Finally,in the cooperation network,countries with strong cooperation are mainly concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe and Western Asia.In the competitive network,countries with strong competitiveness are mainly concentrated in China,ASEAN,and Central and Eastern Europe.(3)From the perspective of the two-tier network,this thesis studies the heterogeneity and evolution mechanism of the competition-cooperation relationship of renewable energy trade.By incorporating competition and cooperation into the same research framework,the intra-layer dissimilarity model of competition network,the intra-layer dissimilarity model of cooperation network and the inter-layer dissimilarity model of competition-cooperation network are constructed.Empirical results show that the dissimilarity evolution of cooperative time series network is mainly dominated by solar products and wind energy products.The dissimilarity evolution of competitive timing network is mainly dominated by biomass energy and wind energy products.For the competition-cooperation double-layer network model,results show that cooperation-oriented country pairs are more likely to develop into competitioncooperation double high country pairs.