Research On Natural Gas Scarcity Risk In Countries Along The "Belt And Road" Based On Complex Network Theory

The rapid economic development of the "Belt and Road" has generated considerable energy demand.In the context of the global energy transition,natural gas resources are becoming a major driver of the world economy.As the demand for natural gas increases steadily around the world,the imbalance between production and consumption is becoming more pronounced.This threatens the security of natural gas supplies,especially in regions where gas is scarce.The imbalance in economic development adds to the complexity of this issue.A limited supply of natural gas resources can cause direct economic losses to an economy,which we define as the risk of scarcity of natural gas.As economies along the "Belt and Road" are intertwined through increasingly close international trade,direct economic losses in one economy can spread to other distant regions through international supply chains,with indirect economic impacts in areas that do not directly experience gas shortages,and sometimes this economic impact is magnified to catastrophic consequences.How do account for the economic losses of a country or sector due to natural gas shortages? How to model the transfer of economic losses in the complex system of countries and sectors along the "Belt and Road" ? And how do quantify the indirect and amplifying effects of natural gas scarcity risks in complex systems? These questions will help to improve the understanding of regional trade and natural gas resource management and will be of great theoretical and practical importance for governments to manage natural gas resources,mitigate the spread of scarcity risks,and propose effective defense strategies.Based on the 2015 multi-regional input-output table and natural gas import and export data in the Eora26 database,this paper first defined a natural gas stress index and quantitatively assessed the local risk of reduced natural gas supply in countries along the "Belt and Road".Then,a multi-regional input-output model was used to assess the transfer of the embodied natural gas scarcity risk to the countries along the "Belt and Road".The research found that:(1)At the country level,Turkey,China,Ukraine,and India are the main sources of scarcity risk due to their exports of commodities containing large amounts of implied natural gas resources.Turkmenistan,Macedonia,Georgia,and Albania are the main destinations of scarcity risk transfer due to the import of commodities containing large amounts of implicit natural gas resources.We assess the risk transfer per unit of economic output for each country without considering the effect of economic size.The results show that on the export side,countries such as Bulgaria,Turkey,and Ukraine are classified as very risky due to relatively high exports of implied natural gas scarcity risk per unit of economic output.While on the import side Turkmenistan,Georgia,and Albania,along with Qatar and Belarus are classified as extremely vulnerable.(2)At the sectoral level,gas scarcity risks flow mainly from the oil,chemical,and non-metallic minerals sector and the electricity,gas and water,metal products,and machinery sectors to the oil,chemical and non-metallic minerals and other sectors,reflecting the more frequent transfer of gas scarcity risks between energy-intensive industries.Therefore,political makers should focus on these energy-intensive industries to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the shift in energy consumption behavior.Based on the complex network theory,the countries along the "Belt and Road" are regarded as nodes,and the natural gas scarcity risk transfer relationship between countries is used as a link,and a network model of natural gas scarcity risk transfer among countries along the "Belt and Road" in 2015 was constructed.Combined with various topological indicators in the network,the cross-regional influence and risk transfer mode of natural gas scarcity risk were discussed from the perspectives of overall and local structural characteristics,community division,and Top network analysis.The study found that:(1)From the perspective of degree and weight distribution,countries with a high risk of local natural gas scarcity such as Turkey,China,and Ukraine are the main sources of risks,and their risks are mainly transferred to Turkmenistan,Macedonia,Georgia,and Romania,which are located in the downstream of the supply chain.nation.Given their structural priorities in the risk transfer network,these countries have great potential to reduce the risk of gas shortages.(2)Countries such as Turkmenistan,Macedonia,and Albania themselves are less dependent on natural gas resources and have a small natural gas coercion index.However,due to the indirect effects of the network system,they suffer from high natural gas scarcity risks and are extremely vulnerable to upstream Economic losses due to natural gas shortages in the supply chain.Therefore,the government should fully consider the local natural gas resource endowment when formulating trade strategies,and the management of the natural gas demand side is an effective way to reduce the risk of natural gas scarcity.(3)The natural gas scarcity risk transfer network is divided into four main exporting countries: Turkey,China,Ukraine,and India the center.The community analysis revealed that Community 1(Turkey-centric community)and Community 2(China-centric community)should pay more attention to risk aversion goals within the community.And Society 4(India-centric society)should strengthen trade management with other societies to effectively slow down the spread of natural gas scarcity risks among societies.(4)Build a top-level import and export network composed of major risk transfer flows,and explore the influence of major risk transfer partners on shaping risk transfer paths between countries.The Top import network mainly forms clusters centered on Turkey,China,and Ukraine,and most of the countries in the same cluster are from the same continent.The structure of the Top export network is relatively scattered.In general,the preferences of natural gas scarcity risk transfer partners show the characteristics of geographical proximity.This study measured the economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity in countries along the "Belt and Road" from a new perspective by defining a natural gas coercion index,i.e.,natural gas scarcity risk.The structural characteristics and key transfer paths of natural gas scarcity risk transfer networks are identified.The potential interactions between risk sources and destinations,as well as the amplification and indirect effects of the network,are explored from a systemic perspective,filling a gap in the study of natural gas scarcity risk.The results of the study will clearly support decision makers in countries and companies along the "Belt and Road" in the management of transboundary natural gas resources and help to develop strategies to mitigate the risks of natural gas scarcity,thereby reducing the spread of such risks in the supply chain.